267 NE 538th St · Cross City, FL 32680

$154,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1990 2.22 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 2.2-acre property in Old Town featuring a 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home. The home offers a new roof, new top of the line water system, and multiple storage sheds, providing both comfort and functionality. The spacious acreage offers privacy and room to enjoy the outdoors, garden, or expand. Ideal as a starter home, weekend getaway, or investment property. Conveniently located close to shopping and dining, and just a short drive to the Suwannee River and the Gulf, perfect for boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation. Don't miss this rare opportunity—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• New water system
• Spacious acreage
• Close to dining

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW WATER SYSTEM
• MULTIPLE STORAGE SHEDS
• SPACIOUS ACREAGE
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Located in Palmetto Run subdivision
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch/patio; Level and wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Refrigerator included; 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($842/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.0% in Cross City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#412 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dixie (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #36 of 73 in FL (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Dixie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dixie County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $154k implies a 1521% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,301 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.95%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $88,280
• Equity at exit: $138,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $256,337
• Equity at exit: $299,188

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32680

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,273 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $765/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,184

Max offer price $154,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $154,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $154,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,000 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    price $154,000
17. 2026-03-23
    price $164,000
18. 2026-01-16
    listed $179,000 Active
19. 2003-10-01
    soldstatus $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $765 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,278 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$513/yr (+$43/mo · 67.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$765
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,222
• − Management: −$1,222
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable loss: −$1,810
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$434
• After-tax cash flow: $1,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dixie
• NCES district ID: 1200450
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,799
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3290
• State rank: #36 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cross City

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #7340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,445

Population outlook (Dixie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,122 people
• By 2030: 14,521 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 13,503 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 12,671 · -16.2%
• By 2075: 10,857 · -28.2%
• By 2100: 8,344 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dixie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.4) · D 14.5% · R 84.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -45.0pp · 2024: -70.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.4 2020: R+66.0 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+45.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.22%
• Current HPI: 424.0037
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1521.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $154,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $164,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $179,000 DGLMLS
• 2003-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $765 · -33.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.