962 Upper St · Arlington, IA 50606

$54,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,557 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1898 10,000 sqft lot Est $92k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Circa 1898, 3 bedroom 2 bath home, family room, original wood floors, garage, and shaded lot with alley access to the rear yard. Minimum $1,500 down payment, 3.5%, 15 years on approved credit to qualified buyers.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1898

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Gravel road access; Lot approximately 0.23 acres (100 x 100); Zoned R1-SF

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#363 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Starmont Community School District (rural): math 62% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #202 of 289 in IA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Starmont Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #273 of 616 statewide, top 51%, 264 students, 39% FRL); Starmont Middle School (math 57% / reading 72%, grade A-, #157 of 246 statewide, top 67%, 129 students, 43% FRL); Starmont High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #211 of 336 statewide, top 70%, 191 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Fayette County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $55k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $54,174 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.05%
• DSCR: 2.92
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,863
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
520 High St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,744 (+12%)	2mo	$91,001	$52	56
514 High St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,355 (-13%)	23mo	$80,000	$59	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $59,279
• Equity at exit: $43,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.48×
• Total profit: $145,977
• Equity at exit: $87,407

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50606

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $838/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $482

Max offer price $54,999

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,999 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,999 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,999 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,999 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,999 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,999 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,999 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,999 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,999 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,999 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $54,999 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,999 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,999 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,999 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,999 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-25
    listed $54,999 Active
17. 2019-12-20
    soldstatus $20,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Circa 1898, 3 bedroom 2 bath home, family room, original wood floors, garage, and shaded lot with alley access to the rear yard. Minimum $1,500 down payment, 3.5%, 15 years on approved credit to qualified buyers.

18. 2019-11-12
    listed $30,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Circa 1898, 3 bedroom 2 bath home, family room, original wood floors, garage, and shaded lot with alley access to the rear yard. Minimum $1,500 down payment, 3.5%, 15 years on approved credit to qualified buyers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $838 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $851 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$13/yr (+$1/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$838
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,135
• − Management: −$1,135
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $6,119
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,469
• After-tax cash flow: $5,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Starmont Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1927270
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,213
• Composite: 54.75/100
• National rank: #1319
• State rank: #202 of 289 in IA

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #7568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, IA
• Population (ZIP): 831

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,299 people
• By 2030: 18,701 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 17,469 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 16,389 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 15,156 · -21.5%
• By 2100: 14,214 · -26.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.5) · D 34.0% · R 64.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.6pp · 2024: -30.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.5 2020: R+22.7 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.40%
• Current HPI: 197.7406
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+83.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $54,999 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2019-12-20 Sold (MLS) $20,000 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2019-11-12 Listed $30,000 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $838 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.