38 Ontario St · Buffalo, NY 14207

$38,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,625 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1938 2,745 sqft lot ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated seller! Three bedroom, 2 bath single family home located across the street from Riverside HS. In the past 2 years windows, roof, hi efficiency furnace, HWT and baths have all been updated. Front room is a great space for storage, in home office or play room. Previously rented for $1500 a month, great investment opportunity. Cash only.

Key facts

• 2,745 sq ft lot
• Built 1938

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Brick and frame construction
• Construction: Brick and frame construction
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Near public transit; Irregular, residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 38x105

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on main level; Total rooms: 7 (includes bedroom, living room, bonus room)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $867 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Cap rate 33.7% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 97.81%
• DSCR: 5.35
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
476 East St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,618 (-0%)	6mo	$100,000	$62	80
38 Heward Ave	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,474 (-9%)	1mo	$256,000	$174	70
68 Riverside Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (-0%)	10mo	$120,000	$74	68
44 Gallatin Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-6%)	5mo	$149,000	$97	64
907 Tonawanda St	0.47mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,639 (+1%)	8mo	$110,000	$67	60
103 Austin St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,600 (-2%)	4mo	$75,000	$47	56
350 East St	0.44mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,752 (+8%)	3mo	$110,000	$63	56
5 Copeland Pl	0.35mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,780 (+10%)	7mo	$70,000	$39	53
61 Mayer Ave	0.42mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,408 (-13%)	7mo	$210,000	$149	44
111 Gorton St	0.67mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,508 (-7%)	6mo	$164,900	$109	43
136 Crowley Ave	0.53mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,394 (-14%)	2mo	$100,000	$72	41
191 Crowley Ave	0.55mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,408 (-13%)	8mo	$170,000	$121	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $56,488
• Equity at exit: $5,666

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.48×
• Total profit: $154,028
• Equity at exit: $3,286

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $287/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $867

Break-even live

Break-even rent $303

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 Rano St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	21d	1	0.43mi
158 Chadduck Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	23d	1	0.66mi
61 Baxter St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2014	$1,400	$0.70	1d	1	0.78mi
78 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2030	$1,300	$0.64	14d	1	1.04mi
62 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,250	$0.95	23d	1	1.07mi
52 Greeley St Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1804	$1,000	$0.55	23d	1	1.25mi
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	1d	1	1.26mi
293 Grote St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$2,345	$2.87	1d	1	1.40mi
100 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1304	$1,600	$1.23	1d	14	1.42mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $38,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   status $38,000 Pending 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   remarks 94-char remark
4. 2026-06-08
   listed $38,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $287 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $465 · $39/mo
• Expected delta: +$177/yr (+$15/mo · 61.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$287
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $10,405
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,497
• After-tax cash flow: $7,910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-36.6% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $38,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records
• 2025-08-06 Sold (MLS) $68,500 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-05-07 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-03-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-03-24 Listed $80,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-02-25 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $100,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-01-14 Price Changed $110,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-01-03 Listed $125,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-27 Sold (MLS) $47,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-12-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-10-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-10-25 Price Changed $47,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-10-04 Price Changed $50,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-09-15 Price Changed $54,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-08-17 Listed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-07-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-05-04 Price Changed $54,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-04-30 Listed $49,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-08-22 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2018-08-12 Price Changed $49,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-08-07 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2018-07-27 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2018-07-10 Price Changed $52,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-06-27 Price Changed $53,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-06-20 Price Changed $54,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-06-15 Price Changed $58,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-06-10 Listed $59,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $287 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.