8 Montana Dr Unit A · Manchester, NJ 08759

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,222 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 1977 Good condition 9,147 sqft lot Garage $119/sqft · 9% below area Est $160k · 9% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover comfortable, low-maintenance living in Cedar Glen Lakes, a desirable 55+ community! This spacious 2-bedroom, 1-bath Madison model offers approximately 1,222 sq. ft. of single-level living. Features include a large living room, eat-in kitchen, central air, generous closet space, walk-in shower, and attached one-car garage with step-free entry. Enjoy a private patio and community amenities including a clubhouse, fitness room, bocce, shuffleboard, and bus service. Monthly association fee includes property taxes, water, sewer, lawn care, snow removal, trash, and exterior maintenance. Pet-friendly and conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways.

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Private patio
• Pet friendly

Tags

• PRIVATE PATIO
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• PET FRIENDLY
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $736 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.3% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1273 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,200/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.75%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,524
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -9.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Nevada Dr Unit B	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,222 (0%)	4mo	$164,000	$134	92
24 Texas Blvd	0.16mi	2/1.0	1,222 (0%)	3mo	$165,000	$135	90
19B Michigan Ave Unit B	0.27mi	2/1.0	1,222 (0%)	1mo	$95,000	$78	87
8A Alaska Ave	0.12mi	2/1.0	1,200 (-2%)	6mo	$148,000	$123	87
13 Michigan Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,222 (0%)	1mo	$150,000	$123	85
14 Michigan Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,222 (0%)	0mo	$204,500	$167	80
12 Michigan Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,222 (0%)	0mo	$139,000	$114	80
12 Vermont Way	0.19mi	2/1.5	1,200 (-2%)	8mo	$185,000	$154	80
3 Idaho Dr	0.40mi	2/1.5	1,200 (-2%)	2mo	$150,000	$125	75
11 Kentucky Way	0.50mi	2/1.5	1,222 (0%)	1mo	$155,000	$127	74
45 Maine Ave Unit A	0.29mi	2/1.0	1,100 (-10%)	2mo	$142,000	$129	68
11 Hawaii Way Unit B	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,100 (-10%)	8mo	$48,000	$44	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $23,409
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $80,875
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.2 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $150,000 ($123/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 47% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 1273
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $736

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $836	-5% $786	+0% $736	+5% $686	+10% $636
Rent	-10% $562	-5% $649	+0% $736	+5% $823	+10% $910
Rate	-1.0pp $809	-0.5pp $773	base $736	+0.5pp $698	+1.0pp $660

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	130d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Cooperative ownership
• HOA & community: Community roomClubhouseBocceMonthly association fee of $503, including trash, common area maintenance, sewer, snow removal, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage1 garage space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Attached property

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric cookingMicrowaveStoveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedroomsOne bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds/ShadesCeiling fan
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $145,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   pricedays on marketlisting id $145,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-10-29
   days on market $165,000 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-10-28
   days on market $165,000 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-10-27
    days on market $165,000 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-10-26
    days on market $165,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-10-25
    days on market $165,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-10-24
    days on market $165,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-10-23
    days on market $165,000 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-10-22
    days on market $165,000 Active 163 DOM
16. 2026-10-21
    days on market $165,000 Active 162 DOM
17. 2026-10-20
    days on market $165,000 Active 161 DOM
18. 2026-10-19
    days on market $165,000 Active 160 DOM
19. 2026-10-18
    days on market $165,000 Active 159 DOM
20. 2026-10-17
    days on market $165,000 Active 158 DOM
21. 2026-10-16
    days on market $165,000 Active 157 DOM
22. 2026-10-15
    days on market $165,000 Active 156 DOM
23. 2026-10-14
    days on market $165,000 Active 155 DOM
24. 2026-10-13
    days on market $165,000 Active 154 DOM
25. 2026-10-12
    days on market $165,000 Active 153 DOM
26. 2026-10-11
    days on market $165,000 Active 152 DOM
27. 2026-10-10
    days on market $165,000 Active 151 DOM
28. 2026-10-09
    days on market $165,000 Active 150 DOM
29. 2026-10-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 149 DOM
30. 2026-10-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 148 DOM
31. 2026-10-06
    days on market $165,000 Active 147 DOM
32. 2026-10-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 146 DOM
33. 2026-10-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 145 DOM
34. 2026-10-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 144 DOM
35. 2026-10-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 143 DOM
36. 2026-10-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 142 DOM
37. 2026-09-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 141 DOM
38. 2026-09-29
    days on market $165,000 Active 140 DOM
39. 2026-09-28
    days on market $165,000 Active 139 DOM
40. 2026-09-27
    days on market $165,000 Active 138 DOM
41. 2026-09-26
    days on market $165,000 Active 137 DOM
42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $165,000 Active 136 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $165,000 Active 135 DOM
44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $165,000 Active 134 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $165,000 Active 133 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $165,000 Active 132 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $165,000 Active 131 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $165,000 Active 130 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $165,000 Active 129 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $165,000 Active 128 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $6,936
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,665
• After-tax cash flow: $7,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,110–$18,330 screening

This move-in ready home in Cedar Glen Lakes offers comfortable single-level living with good condition and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window blinds — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Whiting Elementary School F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Glen Lakes, NJ
• County: Ocean · 586,991 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Cooperative ownership
• HOA & community: Community roomClubhouseBocceMonthly association fee of $503, including trash, common area maintenance, sewer, snow removal, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage1 garage space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Attached property

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric cookingMicrowaveStoveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedroomsOne bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds/ShadesCeiling fan
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

-19.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-10-31 Listed $145,000 MOMLS
• 2026-08-19 Price Changed $165,000 MOMLS
• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $170,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $180,000 MOMLS