1235 Birch Dr · Las Cruces, NM 88001

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · Townhouse public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1979 4,792 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Mature trees
• Garage
• Built 1979

Tags

• PRIVATE WALLED BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-197/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,457/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 2590% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,660 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-31,236
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-26,075
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88001

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,457 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,099/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,477

Max offer price $187,107

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 Coyote Trl Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,524	$1.19	13d	1	0.17mi
204 N Virginia St Las Cruces, NM	2.0	1.0	876	$1,250	$1.43	43d	1	0.64mi
1914 Sheryl Way Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	856	$1,400	$1.64	13d	1	0.64mi
1595 Carrillo Ct Unit A Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,295	$0.92	43d	1	0.70mi
1980 Buchanan Ave Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,800	$1.55	20d	1	0.75mi
2081 Nehemiah Ct Las Cruces, NM	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,700	$1.23	20d	1	0.75mi
1151 Roadrunner Pkwy Apt 805 Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	1157	$1,710	$1.48	43d	1	1.15mi
1775 Roadrunner Pkwy Unit 1107 Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	996	$1,535	$1.54	43d	1	1.23mi
1775 Roadrunner Pkwy Unit 2901 Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	1246	$1,750	$1.40	20d	1	1.23mi
1775 Roadrunner Pkwy Unit 2405 Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	996	$1,535	$1.54	13d	1	1.23mi
1775 Roadrunner Pkwy Unit 2601 Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,980	$1.58	13d	1	1.23mi
2552 Los Misioneros Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,450	$0.99	20d	1	1.25mi
310 N Alameda Blvd Unit 110 Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	885	$1,350	$1.53	43d	1	1.25mi
501 N Roadrunner Pkwy Las Cruces, NM	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1263	$2,165	$1.71	13d	3	1.28mi
169 Oban Ct Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,350	$1.05	13d	1	1.28mi
2245 San Felipe Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	1340	$1,450	$1.08	43d	1	1.32mi
180 Three Crosses Ave Las Cruces, NM	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	821	$1,200	$1.46	13d	24	1.41mi
251 N Roadrunner Pkwy Las Cruces, NM	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,660	$1.77	13d	9	1.46mi
180 Three Crosses Ave Apt 1022 Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,200	$1.18	20d	1	1.47mi
1020 S Triviz Dr Apt 101 Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	1000	$895	$0.90	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   price $190,000
3. 2026-02-18
   listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,099 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$421/yr (+$35/mo · 38.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,099
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,398
• − Management: −$1,398
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$849
• After-tax cash flow: $652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 37,690
• Household income: $33,087
• Rent vs Own: 58.3% rent · 41.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2590.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 24% White 21% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 59%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -239.44%
• Current HPI: 219.0404
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.45%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $190,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-18 Listed $195,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,099 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.