429 Raven Row · Cibolo, TX 78124

$299,330

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,089 sqft · SingleFamily · 92 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $143/sqft · at area comps Est $299k · at est. $94/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready Feb. 2026! The Coolidge features a full bed/bath down, plus a loft and three bedrooms up perfect for young families and first-time buyers. Visit our fully furnished model to experience it in person!

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Cibolo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#261 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,090
• List price: $299,330
• Delta: 0.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
429 Raven Row	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,089 (0%)	0mo	$299,330	$143	100
427 White Heron Way	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,079 (-0%)	2mo	$324,870	$156	95
410 White Heron Way	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,079 (-0%)	4mo	$296,430	$143	94
419 White Heron Way	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,034 (-3%)	6mo	$302,230	$149	88
415 White Heron Way	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,218 (+6%)	6mo	$320,030	$144	79
402 White Heron Way	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,937 (-7%)	6mo	$314,290	$162	76
413 Raven Row	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,837 (-12%)	3mo	$294,730	$160	74
408 Raven Row	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,218 (+6%)	3mo	$309,130	$139	73
1213 Birdsong Ave	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,837 (-12%)	6mo	$285,790	$156	68
418 White Heron Way	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-15%)	7mo	$289,730	$163	64
1032 Oriole Way	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,837 (-12%)	8mo	$279,890	$152	55
123 Colette	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,402 (+15%)	1mo	$575,000	$239	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-55,915
• Equity at exit: $44,631

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-57,744
• Equity at exit: $25,881

Cash invested: $83,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,745 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,570
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,490/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$94
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,896

Max offer price $282,092

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $88	-5% $-16	+0% $-119	+5% $-223	+10% $-326
Rent	-10% $-336	-5% $-228	+0% $-119	+5% $-11	+10% $98
Rate	-1.0pp $32	-0.5pp $-43	base $-119	+0.5pp $-197	+1.0pp $-276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,832
• Closing costs: $8,980
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
426 Nightingale Ave Santa Clara, TX	5.0	4.0	2832	$2,900	$1.02	45d	1	0.12mi
2207 Allison CRK Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,745	$0.94	16d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $94 · $1,128/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,330 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,330 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,330 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,330 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,330 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,330 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,330 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,330 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-05-04
   status Back on Market 206-char remark

   Show marketing remark (206 chars)

   Ready Feb. 2026! The Coolidge features a full bed/bath down, plus a loft and three bedrooms up perfect for young families and first-time buyers. Visit our fully furnished model to experience it in person!

10. 2026-04-16
    status Pending 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Ready Feb. 2026! The Coolidge features a full bed/bath down, plus a loft and three bedrooms up perfect for young families and first-time buyers. Visit our fully furnished model to experience it in person!

11. 2026-04-01
    price $299,330 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Ready Feb. 2026! The Coolidge features a full bed/bath down, plus a loft and three bedrooms up perfect for young families and first-time buyers. Visit our fully furnished model to experience it in person!

12. 2026-02-19
    listed $304,330 New 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Ready Feb. 2026! The Coolidge features a full bed/bath down, plus a loft and three bedrooms up perfect for young families and first-time buyers. Visit our fully furnished model to experience it in person!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,767
• − Property taxes: −$4,490
• − Insurance: −$2,999
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,635
• − Management: −$2,635
• − HOA: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$8,708
• Taxable loss: −$6,421
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,541
• After-tax cash flow: $111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cibolo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #6177

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 49,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,907

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-04-16 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $299,330 LERA
• 2026-02-19 Listed $304,330 LERA