Springsteen Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$339,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,083 sqft · SingleFamily · 195 Days on market

↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 195 days

🏗️ New construction. The $339,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $355,755.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,694 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,755
• List price: $339,990
• Delta: -4.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27034 Flower Isle Ln	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,262 (+9%)	1mo	$375,315	$166	73
27126 Peaceful Cove Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (-10%)	2mo	$299,000	$160	71
4680 Peony Green Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,056 (-1%)	0mo	$343,990	$167	68
5065 Marcasca Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,102 (+1%)	0mo	$331,990	$158	61
5806 Havana Mist Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,134 (+2%)	0mo	$305,000	$143	60
27411 Cinnamon Shores Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,206 (+6%)	1mo	$349,990	$159	56
4684 Peony Green Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,190 (+5%)	2mo	$359,990	$164	56
4784 Luna Landing Dr	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,168 (+4%)	0mo	$335,990	$155	54
4632 Cleo Day Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,859 (-11%)	0mo	$299,990	$161	44
4736 Peony Green Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,858 (-11%)	2mo	$299,990	$161	41
5028 Marcasca Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-12%)	2mo	$301,990	$165	40
5635 Birchwood Glen Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,370 (+14%)	2mo	$371,175	$157	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-75,971
• Equity at exit: $53,044

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-111,654
• Equity at exit: $30,759

Cash invested: $99,611 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,866
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$445 /mo · $5,336/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,112

Max offer price $333,448

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $-31	+0% $-154	+5% $-277	+10% $-400
Rent	-10% $-385	-5% $-269	+0% $-154	+5% $-39	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-64	base $-154	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,939
• Closing costs: $10,673
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	0.31mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	45d	1	0.49mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	0d	17	0.51mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	22d	1	0.61mi
4633 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$3,995	$1.49	26d	1	0.61mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.73mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	45d	1	0.79mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	19d	1	1.04mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	45d	1	1.13mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	14d	1	1.17mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,599	$1.21	1d	1	1.18mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	45d	1	1.18mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	1.19mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	14d	1	1.19mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	26d	1	1.19mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	1.20mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	26d	1	1.21mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	26d	1	1.21mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	1.21mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	1.26mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	45d	1	1.27mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	26d	1	1.27mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	1.30mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	26d	1	1.31mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	14d	1	1.33mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	45d	1	1.38mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	6d	1	1.39mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	0d	1	1.40mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	14d	1	1.47mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	24d	1	1.48mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $339,990 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $366,990 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $366,990 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $366,990 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $366,990 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $366,990 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $366,990 Active 182 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $366,990 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $366,990 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $366,990 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $366,990 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $366,990 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $366,990 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-03-05
    status Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs.

15. 2025-12-08
    listed $366,990 Active
16. 2024-12-26
    historical 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs.

17. 2024-09-26
    listed $388,990 Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,928
• − Property taxes: −$5,336
• − Insurance: −$1,779
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,800
• − Management: −$2,800
• − Depreciation: −$10,349
• Taxable loss: −$7,989
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,917
• After-tax cash flow: $68/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-08 Listed $366,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-26 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-26 Listed $388,990 Zillow