737 Northlake Dr · Covington, LA 70435

$373,321

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,540 sqft · Land · 53 Days on market

Built 2026 0.29 ac lot $147/sqft · 13% below area Est $428k · 13% under $53/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* 2/1 buydown with rate as low as 3.99% for the first 12 months. Contact Builder Sales Rep(s) for current incentive details. * WATERFRONT PROPERTY! The Coronado III K has an open floor plan with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms plus a pocket office! This NEW home includes upgraded quartz counters, wood look plank tile flooring throughout & more. Plan features: stainless appliances, walk-in pantry & island in kitchen, primary suite has a garden tub, separate shower & large walk-in closet with separate access to laundry room, boot bench in mudroom, Wi-Fi thermostat & much more!

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $639

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with two spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Energy-efficient features including insulation, efficient lighting, efficient windows, and efficient water heater
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction (2-under construction); Built by DSLD, LLC; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Covered concrete patio; City lot; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Granite counters; Pantry; Stainless steel appliances; Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $373k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (50.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (40.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (50.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Covington Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #108 of 646 statewide, top 18%, 628 students, 59% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #119 of 218 statewide, top 57%, 635 students, 62% FRL); Covington High School (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #90 of 265 statewide, top 34%, 1,660 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 40% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 366 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($362k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,407 (50.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.01%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $428,371
• List price: $373,321
• Delta: -12.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -44.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-142,876
• Equity at exit: $55,663

10-year hold

• IRR: -79.5%
• Equity multiple: -1.20×
• Total profit: $-229,583
• Equity at exit: $32,278

Cash invested: $104,530 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70435

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,958
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$467 /mo · $5,600/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-1,299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,873

Max offer price $185,407

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,041	-5% $-1,170	+0% $-1,299	+5% $-1,428	+10% $-1,557
Rent	-10% $-1,475	-5% $-1,387	+0% $-1,299	+5% $-1,211	+10% $-1,123
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,111	-0.5pp $-1,204	base $-1,299	+0.5pp $-1,395	+1.0pp $-1,494

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,330
• Closing costs: $11,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternet

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $373,321 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $373,321 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $373,321 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $373,321 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $373,321 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $373,321 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $373,321 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $373,321 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $373,321 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $373,321 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $373,321 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $373,321 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $373,321 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $373,321 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    listed $373,321 Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1687 chars)

    Awesome builder rate + FREE Refrigerator (restrictions apply)! WATERFRONT PROPERTY! This Brand NEW Construction built by DSLD HOMES in Lake Ramsey backs to the Lake! The Coronado III K has an open floor plan with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms plus a pocket office! This NEW home includes upgraded quartz counters, wood look plank tile flooring throughout & more. Plan features: stainless appliances, walk-in pantry & island in kitchen, primary suite has a garden tub, separate shower & large walk-in closet with separate access to laundry room, boot bench in mudroom, Wi-Fi thermostat & much more! About the Community: Located in Covington, Lake Ramsey offers far more than a place to live--it delivers a lifestyle rooted in nature, connection, and everyday adventure. This private, masterfully planned community blends serene natural surroundings with thoughtfully designed, energy-efficient new homes, creating a setting where comfort and outdoor living go hand in hand. Life at Lake Ramsey is active, social, and welcoming. Residents enjoy fishing, boating, cycling, jogging, and lakeside barbecues, along with neighborhood gatherings, holiday celebrations, and an annual community garage sale that brings neighbors together. Whether you're seeking peaceful relaxation or an engaging community atmosphere, Lake Ramsey offers the perfect balance of both. One of the community's most impressive features is its eight miles of scenic lake shoreline, providing breathtaking water and nature views throughout the neighborhood. Many homesites offer direct lake or green-space views, making Lake Ramsey an ideal choice for buyers looking for water-view living in Louisiana.

16. 2026-04-29
    listed $373,321 Active 1712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1687 chars)

    Awesome builder rate + FREE Refrigerator (restrictions apply)! WATERFRONT PROPERTY! This Brand NEW Construction built by DSLD HOMES in Lake Ramsey backs to the Lake! The Coronado III K has an open floor plan with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms plus a pocket office! This NEW home includes upgraded quartz counters, wood look plank tile flooring throughout & more. Plan features: stainless appliances, walk-in pantry & island in kitchen, primary suite has a garden tub, separate shower & large walk-in closet with separate access to laundry room, boot bench in mudroom, Wi-Fi thermostat & much more! About the Community: Located in Covington, Lake Ramsey offers far more than a place to live--it delivers a lifestyle rooted in nature, connection, and everyday adventure. This private, masterfully planned community blends serene natural surroundings with thoughtfully designed, energy-efficient new homes, creating a setting where comfort and outdoor living go hand in hand. Life at Lake Ramsey is active, social, and welcoming. Residents enjoy fishing, boating, cycling, jogging, and lakeside barbecues, along with neighborhood gatherings, holiday celebrations, and an annual community garage sale that brings neighbors together. Whether you're seeking peaceful relaxation or an engaging community atmosphere, Lake Ramsey offers the perfect balance of both. One of the community's most impressive features is its eight miles of scenic lake shoreline, providing breathtaking water and nature views throughout the neighborhood. Many homesites offer direct lake or green-space views, making Lake Ramsey an ideal choice for buyers looking for water-view living in Louisiana.

17. 2026-04-29
    listed $373,321 Active 1712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1687 chars)

    Awesome builder rate + FREE Refrigerator (restrictions apply)! WATERFRONT PROPERTY! This Brand NEW Construction built by DSLD HOMES in Lake Ramsey backs to the Lake! The Coronado III K has an open floor plan with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms plus a pocket office! This NEW home includes upgraded quartz counters, wood look plank tile flooring throughout & more. Plan features: stainless appliances, walk-in pantry & island in kitchen, primary suite has a garden tub, separate shower & large walk-in closet with separate access to laundry room, boot bench in mudroom, Wi-Fi thermostat & much more! About the Community: Located in Covington, Lake Ramsey offers far more than a place to live--it delivers a lifestyle rooted in nature, connection, and everyday adventure. This private, masterfully planned community blends serene natural surroundings with thoughtfully designed, energy-efficient new homes, creating a setting where comfort and outdoor living go hand in hand. Life at Lake Ramsey is active, social, and welcoming. Residents enjoy fishing, boating, cycling, jogging, and lakeside barbecues, along with neighborhood gatherings, holiday celebrations, and an annual community garage sale that brings neighbors together. Whether you're seeking peaceful relaxation or an engaging community atmosphere, Lake Ramsey offers the perfect balance of both. One of the community's most impressive features is its eight miles of scenic lake shoreline, providing breathtaking water and nature views throughout the neighborhood. Many homesites offer direct lake or green-space views, making Lake Ramsey an ideal choice for buyers looking for water-view living in Louisiana.

18. 2025-10-30
    soldstatus $450,000
19. 2019-07-12
    soldstatus $800,000
20. 2017-03-17
    listed $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,912
• − Property taxes: −$5,600
• − Insurance: −$6,985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,140
• − Management: −$2,140
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$10,860
• Taxable loss: −$22,525
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,406
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 228,296 people
• City population: 64,351
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 22,475
• Household income: $80,926
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.03%
• Current HPI: 202.0458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+474.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $373,321 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Listed $373,321 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $373,321 GSREIN
• 2025-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $800,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-17 Listed $65,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $606 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.