2786 Quogue Riverhead Rd · East Quogue, NY 11942

$825,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 906 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1994 Good condition 0.26 ac lot $911/sqft · 10% above area Est $1.257M · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set on a 0.26-acre parcel in East Quogue, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a versatile layout and opportunity to tailor the space to your needs. With approximately 1,500+/- sq. ft. of living space, the home provides multiple living areas, hardwood floors, custom trim work, and updated bathrooms. The outdoor space allows for a variety of possibilities, whether enhancing the existing setting or expanding over time. Private parking adds to the overall convenience. Located near local amenities, transportation options, and ocean beaches, the property offers access to everything the East End has to offer. A solid opportunity to enjoy as-is or personalize over time!

Key facts

• Updated bathrooms
• Custom trim work
• Outdoor space

Tags

• 0.26-ACRE PARCEL
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CUSTOM TRIM WORK
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $825k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $825k).
• Recommended offer: $726k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,000/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($726k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $328k; list at $825k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $726,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.68%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,256,577
• List price: $825,000
• Delta: -34.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
88 Old Country Rd	1.22mi	3/1.0	924 (+2%)	10mo	$716,000	$775	54
5 Hallock Ave	1.43mi	3/1.0	945 (+4%)	5mo	$750,000	$794	53
33 Punchbowl Ln	1.27mi	3/1.0	897 (-1%)	18mo	$100,000	$111	48
83 Old Country Rd	1.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	993 (+10%)	0mo	$640,000	$645	44
83 Lewis Rd	0.80mi	3/1.5	880 (-3%)	22mo	$552,000	$627	40
8 Walker Ave	1.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-7%)	14mo	$555,000	$661	36
9 Mitchell Pl	1.30mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+10%)	15mo	$705,000	$705	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-2,947
• Equity at exit: $123,010

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $165,053
• Equity at exit: $71,331

Cash invested: $231,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $800,000 ($990/sqft)
• Median days on market: 47 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +40.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,326
• Tax from tax record: −$383 /mo · $4,596/yr
• Insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,890
• Net cashflow: $2,057

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,396

Max offer price $825,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,524	-5% $2,290	+0% $2,057	+5% $1,823	+10% $1,590
Rent	-10% $1,346	-5% $1,701	+0% $2,057	+5% $2,412	+10% $2,768
Rate	-1.0pp $2,472	-0.5pp $2,267	base $2,057	+0.5pp $1,843	+1.0pp $1,626

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $206,250
• Closing costs: $24,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1011	$9,000	$8.90	24d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Private parking
• Utilities: Septic tankElectricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceLiving area documented from plans
• Construction: Cedar constructionBuilding area approximately 1,608 total square feet
• Exterior features: Cedar exteriorNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heatingNo central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomFinished full basementAttic with pull-down stairs9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Basement utilities (finished basement available for laundry/utility space)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $825,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $825,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $825,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $825,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $825,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $825,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $825,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $825,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   pricedays on market $825,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $849,999 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $849,999 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $849,999 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $849,999 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $849,999 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $849,999 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $849,999 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $849,999 Active 102 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $849,999 Active 101 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $849,999 Active 100 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $849,999 Active 99 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $849,999 Active 98 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $849,999 Active 97 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $849,999 Active 96 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $849,999 Active 95 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $849,999 Active 94 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $849,999 Active 92 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $849,999 Active 91 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $849,999 Active 90 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $849,999 Active 89 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $849,999 Active 88 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $849,999 Active 87 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $849,999 Active 86 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $849,999 Active 85 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $849,999 Active 84 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $849,999 Active 83 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $849,999 Active 82 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $849,999 Active 81 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $849,999 Active 79 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $849,999 Active 77 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $849,999 Active 76 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $849,999 Active 73 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $849,999 Active 72 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $849,999 Active 71 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $849,999 Active 70 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $849,999 Active 68 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $849,999 Active 67 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $849,999 Active 64 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $849,999 Active 63 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $849,999 Active 62 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $849,999 Active 59 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,596 · $383/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,269 · $772/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,673/yr (+$389/mo · 101.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $108,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,213
• − Property taxes: −$4,596
• − Insurance: −$4,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,640
• − Management: −$8,640
• − Depreciation: −$24,000
• Taxable income: $11,786
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,829
• After-tax cash flow: $21,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,530–$13,590 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in East Quogue offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with some cosmetic updates.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can add value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary East Quogue School B- NY #745/2,108 Nat'l #7,252/41,679

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• County: Suffolk · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 5,871
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 5,871
• Household income: $106,875
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Private parking
• Utilities: Septic tankElectricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceLiving area documented from plans
• Construction: Cedar constructionBuilding area approximately 1,608 total square feet
• Exterior features: Cedar exteriorNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heatingNo central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomFinished full basementAttic with pull-down stairs9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Basement utilities (finished basement available for laundry/utility space)

Price history

+204.7% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $849,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $859,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-06 Listed $880,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-10 Listed $849,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Listed $849,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Listed $849,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $328,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-14 Sold (MLS) $328,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-14 Sold (MLS) $328,000 MLSLI
• 2016-10-28 Pending — MLSLI
• 2016-08-09 Price Changed $329,000 MLSLI
• 2016-06-28 Price Changed $334,000 MLSLI
• 2016-05-13 Price Changed $339,000 MLSLI
• 2016-02-25 Price Changed $344,000 MLSLI
• 2015-12-18 Price Changed $349,000 MLSLI
• 2015-11-14 Listed $360,000 MLSLI
• 2015-11-13 Listed $329,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-01 Sold (MLS) $252,000 MLSLI
• 2014-10-01 Sold (MLS) $252,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $252,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-17 Pending — MLSLI
• 2014-04-17 Price Changed $279,000 MLSLI
• 2014-03-04 Price Changed $295,000 MLSLI
• 2014-03-04 Listed $275,000 MLSLI
• 2014-03-04 Listed $279,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,596 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.