2786 Quogue Riverhead Rd · East Quogue, NY 11942

$849,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 906 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1994 0.26 ac lot $938/sqft · 11% above area Est $1290k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on a 0.26-acre parcel in East Quogue, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a versatile layout and opportunity to tailor the space to your needs. With approximately 1,500+/- sq. ft. of living space, the home provides multiple living areas, hardwood floors, custom trim work, and updated bathrooms. The outdoor space allows for a variety of possibilities, whether enhancing the existing setting or expanding over time. Private parking adds to the overall convenience. Located near local amenities, transportation options, and ocean beaches, the property offers access to everything the East End has to offer. A solid opportunity to enjoy as-is or personalize over time!

Key facts

• Updated bathrooms
• Custom trim work
• Outdoor space

Tags

• 0.26-ACRE PARCEL
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CUSTOM TRIM WORK
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $850k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($32k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $850k).
• Recommended offer: $799k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($799k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $328k; list at $850k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $798,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.64%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,290,351
• List price: $849,999
• Delta: -34.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $34,301
• Equity at exit: $126,738

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $250,654
• Equity at exit: $73,492

Cash invested: $238,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax from tax record: −$383 /mo · $4,596/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,100
• Net cashflow: $2,705

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,576

Max offer price $849,999

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,500
• Closing costs: $25,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1011	$10,000	$9.89	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $849,999 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $849,999 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $849,999 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $849,999 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $849,999 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $849,999 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $849,999 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $849,999 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $849,999 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $849,999 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $849,999 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $849,999 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $849,999 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $849,999 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $849,999 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Set on a 0.26-acre parcel in East Quogue, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a versatile layout and opportunity to tailor the space to your needs. With approximately 1,500+/- sq. ft. of living space, the home provides multiple living areas, hardwood floors, custom trim work, and updated bathrooms. The outdoor space allows for a variety of possibilities, whether enhancing the existing setting or expanding over time. Private parking adds to the overall convenience. Located near local amenities, transportation options, and ocean beaches, the property offers access to everything the East End has to offer. A solid opportunity to enjoy as-is or personalize over time!

16. 2026-03-31
    listed $875,000 Active 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Set on a 0.26-acre parcel in East Quogue, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a versatile layout and opportunity to tailor the space to your needs. With approximately 1,500+/- sq. ft. of living space, the home provides multiple living areas, hardwood floors, custom trim work, and updated bathrooms. The outdoor space allows for a variety of possibilities, whether enhancing the existing setting or expanding over time. Private parking adds to the overall convenience. Located near local amenities, transportation options, and ocean beaches, the property offers access to everything the East End has to offer. A solid opportunity to enjoy as-is or personalize over time!

17. 2025-04-24
    price $859,999
18. 2025-02-06
    listed $880,000 Active
19. 2024-08-07
    historical
20. 2024-07-10
    listed $849,990 Active
21. 2024-07-03
    historical
22. 2024-07-03
    historical
23. 2024-07-03
    listed $849,990 Active
24. 2024-07-03
    listed $849,990 Active
25. 2017-01-17
    soldstatus $328,000
26. 2016-12-14
    soldstatus $328,000
27. 2016-12-14
    soldstatus $328,000 Closed
28. 2016-10-28
    status Under Contract
29. 2016-08-09
    price $329,000
30. 2016-06-28
    price $334,000
31. 2016-05-13
    price $339,000
32. 2016-02-25
    price $344,000
33. 2015-12-18
    price $349,000
34. 2015-11-14
    listed $360,000 New
35. 2015-11-13
    listed $329,000
36. 2014-10-01
    soldstatus $252,000
37. 2014-10-01
    soldstatus $252,000 Closed
38. 2014-07-17
    soldstatus $252,000
39. 2014-04-17
    status Under Contract
40. 2014-04-17
    price $279,000
41. 2014-03-04
    price $295,000 Price Change
42. 2014-03-04
    listed $275,000 New
43. 2014-03-04
    listed $279,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,596 · $383/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,481 · $790/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,884/yr (+$407/mo · 106.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $120,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,613
• − Property taxes: −$4,596
• − Insurance: −$4,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,600
• − Management: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$24,727
• Taxable income: $19,613
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,707
• After-tax cash flow: $27,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+204.7% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $849,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $859,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-06 Listed $880,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-10 Listed $849,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Listed $849,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Listed $849,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $328,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-14 Sold (MLS) $328,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-14 Sold (MLS) $328,000 MLSLI
• 2016-10-28 Pending — MLSLI
• 2016-08-09 Price Changed $329,000 MLSLI
• 2016-06-28 Price Changed $334,000 MLSLI
• 2016-05-13 Price Changed $339,000 MLSLI
• 2016-02-25 Price Changed $344,000 MLSLI
• 2015-12-18 Price Changed $349,000 MLSLI
• 2015-11-14 Listed $360,000 MLSLI
• 2015-11-13 Listed $329,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-01 Sold (MLS) $252,000 MLSLI
• 2014-10-01 Sold (MLS) $252,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $252,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-17 Pending — MLSLI
• 2014-04-17 Price Changed $279,000 MLSLI
• 2014-03-04 Price Changed $295,000 MLSLI
• 2014-03-04 Listed $275,000 MLSLI
• 2014-03-04 Listed $279,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,596 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.