67 Bethlehem Rd · Beaver Dam Lake, NY 12553

$329,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1964 1.10 ac lot $177/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your paintbrush and your vision. This spacious ranch style home on a lovely country acre in the Cornwall School District is the perfect opportunity to enter the market and build instant sweat equity. There's plenty of room for the extended family in this large home with cozy mother-daughter living quarters. Two kitchens and a spacious in-law suite with a separate entrance offer privacy and family living. Sold as-is, this property offers a generous layout and is ready for a new owner to see its potential and make it their own. Abundant off-street parking and a beautiful acre-plus property, with affordable taxes, make this property a must-see! Convenient to all, yet peaceful and private. Broker discloses interest.

Key facts

• 1.1 acre lot
• 6 parking spots
• Built 1964

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-96/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.7% in Beaver Dam Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#413 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cornwall Central School District (suburban): math 66% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #133 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $293,097 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $760,554
• List price: $329,000
• Delta: -56.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Vascello Rd	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,872 (+0%)	12mo	$525,000	$280	57
208 Sycamore Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,716 (-8%)	7mo	$549,999	$321	46
9 Vascello Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-9%)	8mo	$500,000	$294	45
215 Sycamore Dr	0.69mi	3/3.5	2,000 (+7%)	9mo	$520,000	$260	42
383 Chestnut Ave	0.64mi	3/2.5	2,143 (+15%)	18mo	$472,000	$220	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-53,748
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-47,157
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12553

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,931 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$461 /mo · $5,533/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,941

Max offer price $327,582

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Active 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Bring your paintbrush and your vision. This spacious ranch style home on a lovely country acre in the Cornwall School District is the perfect opportunity to enter the market and build instant sweat equity. There's plenty of room for the extended family in this large home with cozy mother-daughter living quarters. Two kitchens and a spacious in-law suite with a separate entrance offer privacy and family living. Sold as-is, this property offers a generous layout and is ready for a new owner to see its potential and make it their own. Abundant off-street parking and a beautiful acre-plus property, with affordable taxes, make this property a must-see! Convenient to all, yet peaceful and private. Broker discloses interest.

2. 2026-04-11
   listed $329,000 Active 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Bring your paintbrush and your vision. This spacious ranch style home on a lovely country acre in the Cornwall School District is the perfect opportunity to enter the market and build instant sweat equity. There's plenty of room for the extended family in this large home with cozy mother-daughter living quarters. Two kitchens and a spacious in-law suite with a separate entrance offer privacy and family living. Sold as-is, this property offers a generous layout and is ready for a new owner to see its potential and make it their own. Abundant off-street parking and a beautiful acre-plus property, with affordable taxes, make this property a must-see! Convenient to all, yet peaceful and private. Broker discloses interest.

3. 2026-04-05
   historical $329,000 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Bring your paintbrush and your vision. This spacious ranch style home on a lovely country acre in the Cornwall School District is the perfect opportunity to enter the market and build instant sweat equity. There's plenty of room for the extended family in this large home with cozy mother-daughter living quarters. Two kitchens and a spacious in-law suite with a separate entrance offer privacy and family living. Sold as-is, this property offers a generous layout and is ready for a new owner to see its potential and make it their own. Abundant off-street parking and a beautiful acre-plus property, with affordable taxes, make this property a must-see! Convenient to all, yet peaceful and private. Broker discloses interest.

4. 2026-01-11
   historical
5. 2025-12-09
   price $369,900
6. 2025-10-18
   listed $389,900 Active
7. 2025-10-10
   price $389,900
8. 2025-10-10
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,533 · $461/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,547 · $462/mo
• Expected delta: +$13/yr (+$1/mo · 0.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$5,533
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,814
• − Management: −$2,814
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$5,634
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,352
• After-tax cash flow: $1,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cornwall Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608430
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,331
• Composite: 60.96/100
• National rank: #805
• State rank: #133 of 590 in NY

Livability — Beaver Dam Lake

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #7183

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,384
• Household income: $92,757
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.96%
• Current HPI: 314.8506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Listed $329,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-05 Coming Soon $329,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $369,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-18 Listed $389,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $389,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2016): $5,533 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.