7206 W 129th Ave · Cedar Lake, IN 46303

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1925 5,096 sqft lot Est $158k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great cottage steps to Lake. No buyer restrictions. Sold as is where is.

Key facts

• Lake lifestyle
• Spacious lot
• Cedar lake cottage

Tags

• CEDAR LAKE COTTAGE
• STEPS FROM THE WATER
• BRIGHT AND FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• SPACIOUS LOT
• LAKE LIFESTYLE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Built in 1925
• Exterior features: No notable view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Second bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.5% in Cedar Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#354 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Crown Point Community School Corporation (suburban): math 51% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #23 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $120k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.06%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,472
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12732 Edison St	0.21mi	2/1.0	744 (0%)	13mo	$206,000	$277	80
7409 W 129th Ave	0.15mi	2/1.0	738 (-1%)	15mo	$198,000	$268	79
7216 W 128th Ln	0.05mi	2/1.0	751 (+1%)	22mo	$130,000	$173	78
7224 W 128th Ln	0.06mi	2/1.0	705 (-5%)	16mo	$168,000	$238	75
7121 W 128th Ln	0.06mi	2/1.0	697 (-6%)	16mo	$125,000	$179	74
6819 W 128th Pl	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	800 (+8%)	12mo	$170,000	$213	61
8103 W 127th Pl	0.59mi	2/1.0	720 (-3%)	19mo	$125,000	$174	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $7,353
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $40,759
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46303

• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,426 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $311/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $893

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $490	-5% $456	+0% $422	+5% $388	+10% $354
Rent	-10% $309	-5% $365	+0% $422	+5% $478	+10% $534
Rate	-1.0pp $482	-0.5pp $452	base $422	+0.5pp $391	+1.0pp $359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $120,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   remarks 681-char remark
5. 2026-06-13
   listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $311 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $666 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$354/yr (+$30/mo · 113.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$311
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,369
• − Management: −$1,369
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,254
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$781
• After-tax cash flow: $4,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crown Point Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1802490
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,148
• Composite: 49.55/100
• National rank: #1990
• State rank: #23 of 301 in IN

Livability — Cedar Lake

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #13482

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Lake, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 17,680
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 17,680
• Household income: $84,211
• Rent vs Own: 13.5% rent · 86.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 84.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Iranian 9% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.94%
• Current HPI: 267.4434
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+76.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $120,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-06 Sold (MLS) $32,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-05 Listed $34,999 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $8,502 Public Records
• 2003-06-18 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-09-12 Listed $68,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-07-01 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-12-22 Listed $68,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $311 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.