25734 Sapphire Cove St · Houston, TX 77493

$286,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $167/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Beckham Floor Plan - This single-story home has everything growing families need with three bedrooms in total and an open concept living area. Two bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while down the hall is the family room, kitchen and dining room with access to the back porch. Tucked into the back corner is the owner’s suite, which has a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Back porch
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• BACK PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Alamo Management Group; Community amenities include picnic area, playground, and park; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and stucco construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Additional bedrooms on first floor (two bedrooms listed)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen open to family room; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $286,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,385.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-461 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,152 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.19%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,385
• List price: $286,990
• Delta: -10.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25711 Sapphire Cove St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,792 (0%)	2mo	$311,990	$174	88
25723 Sapphire Cove St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,792 (0%)	3mo	$307,990	$172	87
8310 Poseidon Cove Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+5%)	2mo	$322,990	$172	79
25735 Sapphire Cove St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+5%)	4mo	$327,990	$174	78
8314 Poseidon Cove Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,908 (+6%)	2mo	$340,990	$179	72
25719 Sapphire Cove St	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,908 (+6%)	3mo	$329,990	$173	72
25743 Sapphire Cove St	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,908 (+6%)	4mo	$328,990	$172	71
25727 Sapphire Cove St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-11%)	3mo	$299,990	$187	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-88,085
• Equity at exit: $47,621

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-141,386
• Equity at exit: $27,615

Cash invested: $89,428 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,422 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,791/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$167
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,005

Max offer price $252,649

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-240	-5% $-351	+0% $-461	+5% $-572	+10% $-682
Rent	-10% $-652	-5% $-557	+0% $-461	+5% $-366	+10% $-270
Rate	-1.0pp $-300	-0.5pp $-380	base $-461	+0.5pp $-544	+1.0pp $-628

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,846
• Closing costs: $9,582
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7410 Hillside Arbor Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2289	$2,400	$1.05	45d	1	0.93mi
7402 Clover Chase Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	45d	1	1.19mi
26802 Cenzontle Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	45d	1	1.24mi
6758 Sunset Velvet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,350	$1.49	45d	1	1.43mi
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $167 · $2,004/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $286,990 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $286,990 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $286,990 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $286,990 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 596-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $286,990 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $286,990 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $283,990 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $283,990 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $283,990 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $283,990 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $283,990 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $283,990 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $283,990 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $283,990 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    historical
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $294,040 Active 563-char remark
18. 2026-05-11
    price $294,040
19. 2026-05-08
    listed $307,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,891
• − Property taxes: −$4,791
• − Insurance: −$1,597
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,325
• − Management: −$2,325
• − HOA: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$9,291
• Taxable loss: −$11,164
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,679
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $286,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $283,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $294,040 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $294,040 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $307,990 HARMLS