52660 Bastien Dr · Nikiski, AK 99611

$140,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1961 1.98 ac lot $95/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A PILOT'S DREAM BUILD SITE, on a private airstrip that runs thru the acerage and gives owner private access to glide path and airstrip. This LARGE almost 2 ACRE LOT suitable for DEVELOPMENT, has an existing dry cabin which has major structural issues and a Quonset Hut on cement slab. This is a great build site with well, sewer, electric, year-round maintained roads, and potential... natural gas. Come build your home or develop this property and flip it.

Key facts

• Quonset hut
• Existing dry cabin
• Private airstrip

Tags

• PRIVATE AIRSTRIP
• EXISTING DRY CABIN
• QUONSET HUT
• YEAR-ROUND MAINTAINED ROADS
• NATURAL GAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $808 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 4.2% in Nikiski — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#131 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $131,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.74%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,254
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -55.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52730 Lake View Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,694 (+15%)	8mo	$425,000	$251	38
48387 Lake Meadow Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,563 (+6%)	23mo	$299,500	$192	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $28,733
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $91,080
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99611

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $428/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $808

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,048

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    listed $140,000 Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    A PILOT'S DREAM BUILD SITE, on a private airstrip that runs thru the acerage and gives owner private access to glide path and airstrip. This LARGE almost 2 ACRE LOT suitable for DEVELOPMENT, has an existing dry cabin which has major structural issues and a Quonset Hut on cement slab. This is a great build site with well, sewer, electric, year-round maintained roads, and potential... natural gas. Come build your home or develop this property and flip it.

18. 2025-02-19
    listed $140,000 Active
19. 2023-07-13
    listed $150,000 Active
20. 2023-04-21
    historical
21. 2022-06-11
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $428 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,047 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$619/yr (+$52/mo · 144.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$428
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,988
• − Management: −$1,988
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $7,836
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,881
• After-tax cash flow: $7,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Nikiski

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #22928

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nikiski, AK
• Population (ZIP): 16,028

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 14% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.50%
• Current HPI: 169.2848
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $140,000 AKMLS
• 2025-02-19 Listed $140,000 AKMLS
• 2023-07-13 Listed $150,000 AKMLS
• 2023-04-21 Delisted — AKMLS
• 2022-06-11 Listed $175,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $428 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.