Cumberland Plan · Marion, TX 78124

$290,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,370 sqft · SingleFamily · 241 Days on market

Poor condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Cash flow +0.7/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Coastline Collection brings new single-family homes to the Kayden Springs masterplan in Marion, TX. Residents will be a short drive from an array of shopping, dining and entertainment options in the nearby cities of New Braunfels, San Antonio and Seguin. New Braunfels is home to the popular Schlitterbahn Waterpark, which features river rides, slides and much more for endless summertime fun. Military personnel and families will enjoy proximity to the Randolph Air Force Base in Converse.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 240 days

🏗️ New construction. The $290,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $567,595.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $291k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-29k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (25.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (35.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.2% vs local median 4.5% in Marion — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norma Krueger El (362 students, 50% FRL); Marion Middle (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 372 students, 41% FRL); Marion H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 456 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 535 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,177 (35.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.33% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.33%
• DSCR: 0.18
• GRM: 25.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $567,595
• List price: $290,999
• Delta: -48.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 Colette	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,402 (+1%)	3mo	$575,000	$239	68
203 Colette Ln	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,250 (-5%)	13mo	$555,000	$247	51
128 Haycraft Blvd	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,195 (-7%)	19mo	$522,400	$238	47
108 Haycraft	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (-11%)	3mo	$599,777	$286	46
111 Colette Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,045 (-14%)	15mo	$469,000	$229	43
2102 Monument Hl	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-15%)	2mo	$314,999	$156	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -53.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-246,588
• Equity at exit: $84,630

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.60×
• Total profit: $-413,735
• Equity at exit: $49,075

Cash invested: $158,926 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 49 active · 25 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.3 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $313,990 ($143/sqft)
• Median days on market: 182 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +67.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 535
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,977
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$709 /mo · $8,514/yr
• Insurance: −$236
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-2,428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,965

Max offer price $216,256

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,036	-5% $-2,232	+0% $-2,428	+5% $-2,624	+10% $-2,820
Rent	-10% $-2,577	-5% $-2,503	+0% $-2,428	+5% $-2,353	+10% $-2,279
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,142	-0.5pp $-2,284	base $-2,428	+0.5pp $-2,575	+1.0pp $-2,725

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $141,899
• Closing costs: $17,028
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2207 Allison CRK Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,745	$0.94	64d	1	0.19mi
2207 Allison Creek Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,800	$0.97	28d	1	0.19mi
426 Nightingale Ave Santa Clara, TX	5.0	4.0	2832	$2,900	$1.02	93d	1	0.86mi
1115 Pigeon Ln Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,895	$1.07	24d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $290,999 Active 241 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $290,999 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $290,999 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $290,999 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $290,999 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $290,999 Active 233 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $290,999 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $290,999 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $290,999 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $290,999 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $290,999 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $290,999 Active 225 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $290,999 Active 224 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $290,999 Active 223 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $290,999 Active 222 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $290,999 Active 220 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $290,999 Active 219 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $290,999 Active 218 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $290,999 Active 217 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $290,999 Active 216 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $290,999 Active 215 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $290,999 Active 214 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $290,999 Active 213 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $290,999 Active 212 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $290,999 Active 211 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $290,999 Active 209 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $290,999 Active 208 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $290,999 Active 207 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $290,999 Active 205 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $290,999 Active 204 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $290,999 Active 203 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $290,999 Active 202 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $290,999 Active 201 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $290,999 Active 200 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $290,999 Active 199 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $290,999 Active 198 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $290,999 Active 196 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $290,999 Active 194 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $290,999 Active 193 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $290,999 Active 190 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $290,999 Active 189 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $290,999 Active 188 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $290,999 Active 187 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $290,999 Active 185 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $290,999 Active 184 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $290,999 Active 181 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $290,999 Active 180 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,999 Active 179 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,999 Active 176 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,999 Active 175 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,794
• − Property taxes: −$8,514
• − Insurance: −$2,838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − Depreciation: −$16,512
• Taxable loss: −$40,589
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,741
• After-tax cash flow: $-19,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $118,500–$213,300 screening

This home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding, roof, flooring, and interior cleaning and paint. Significant updates are needed to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major roof — Missing shingles
• Major flooring — Worn and damaged condition
• Major interior walls/paint — Dirty and in need of cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both roof repair — Prevents further damage and enhances home value ↑
• Both flooring replacement — Enhances home value and comfort ↑
• Both interior cleaning and paint — Enhances home value and appearance ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Norma Krueger El/bert Karrer Campus D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Marion Middle F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Marion H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Guadalupe · 196,854 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,907
• Household income: $82,534
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 47% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $290,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $293,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $300,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $305,999 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $314,999 Zillow