#30 Bear Creek Vlg · Lakeside, MT 59911

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily · 150 Days on market

Built 2018

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Shed
• Built 2018
• Listed 149 days

Tags

• VIEWS OF THE SWAN RANGE
• SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: hwy 83 to bear creek village
• Financial info: Land is leased; Annual tax amount reported
• HOA & community: Details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Details not provided
• Security: Details not provided
• Utilities: Details not provided
• Home design: Residential property of other sub-type
• Construction: Foundation details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Lot size listed as 0 acres (see remarks for foundation details)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Details not provided
• Flooring: Details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Details not provided
• Interior features: Dishwasher
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 0.3% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#101 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, schools B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Flathead H S (town): math 29% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #55 of 116 in MT (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 217 active listings in the ZIP; 281 units permitted in Flathead County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flathead County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.97%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-12,769
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,756
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59911

• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 132 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 131 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 130 DOM
18. 2026-01-20
    listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,422
• − Management: −$1,422
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$74
• After-tax cash flow: $2,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flathead H S
• NCES district ID: 3015420
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,712
• Composite: 34.79/100
• National rank: #5115
• State rank: #55 of 116 in MT

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #10220

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment B Housing B- Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, MT
• City population: 4,147
• Population (ZIP): 9,316

Population outlook (Flathead County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 108,002 people
• By 2030: 113,362 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 122,245 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 129,517 · +19.9%
• By 2075: 146,737 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 155,045 · +43.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Flathead

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 31.8% · R 65.5% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.9 2016: R+36.5 2012: R+33.4 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.55%
• Current HPI: 223.396
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Listed $155,000 MRMLS