1018 Dolphin Rd · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77617

$224,540

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2011 4,499 sqft lot $223/sqft · 41% below area Est $379k · 41% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Rare coastal opportunity in one of the best spots on Bolivar Peninsula, just about a 1-minute drive to the beach w/ unobstructed Gulf, beach, & bay views that make this property stand out. This elevated home offers open-concept living, easy-care vinyl plank flooring, a bright kitchen w/ bar seating, 2 comfortable bedrooms, 1 bath, & a relaxed interior built for weekend escapes or short-term guests. Step outside to enjoy the upper deck views plus a fenced ground-level area perfect for entertaining, lounging, or extra storage. Set on stilts in a prime Gilchrist location near the Lauderdale Boat Ramp, this property is an exciting option for a profitable Airbnb, income-producing vacat

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Beach views
• Bay views

Tags

• UNOBSTRUCTED GULF VIEWS
• BEACH VIEWS
• BAY VIEWS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• BRIGHT KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2011
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Patio; Cleared lot; Corner lot; Side yard; Has view; Beach front

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on first floor (14 x 12); Bedroom on first floor (14 x 12)
• Flooring: Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (10 x 8)
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Pots & pan drawers; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Vanity; Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (17.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• High Island ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 1,141 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 227 active listings in the ZIP; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,877 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.48%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $379,162
• List price: $224,540
• Delta: -40.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1038 Elizabeth St	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,151 (+14%)	9mo	$575,000	$500	60
1051 Victoria Ln	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,097 (+9%)	11mo	$321,269	$293	42
1018 Sea Gull St	0.53mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,152 (+14%)	23mo	$350,000	$304	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $13,257
• Equity at exit: $100,963

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $67,968
• Equity at exit: $155,596

Cash invested: $62,871 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77617

• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,644 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,178
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,482/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $-225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,929

Max offer price $184,877

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,135
• Closing costs: $6,736
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,540 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,540 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,540 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,540 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,540 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $224,540 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,540 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,540 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,540 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,540 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,540 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,540 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,540 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,540 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    status Pending 736-char remark
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $230,000 Active 736-char remark
17. 2025-12-31
    historical
18. 2025-09-28
    price $240,000
19. 2025-02-17
    price $265,000
20. 2024-11-26
    listed $275,000 Active
21. 2021-11-12
    soldstatus
22. 2010-08-20
    soldstatus
23. 1988-05-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,482 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,482 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,578
• − Property taxes: −$4,482
• − Insurance: −$9,151
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,539
• − Management: −$2,539
• − Depreciation: −$6,532
• Taxable loss: −$6,087
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,461
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: High Island ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823160
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,447
• Composite: 50.69/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #177 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 38

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Serbian 18%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $224,540 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-26 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,482 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.