4127 Mahogany Blvd · Bunnell, FL 32110

$185,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,254 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1989 0.93 ac lot Est $361k · 49% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 2-story home situated on just under 1 acre with plenty of potential! This 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath property offers a functional layout with abundant natural light flowing through the many windows upstairs and down. Enjoy relaxing outdoors on the large covered wraparound porch extending along two sides of the home--perfect for morning coffee or entertaining guests. The fenced yard provides plenty of space for pets, gardening, or outdoor activities, while the impressive approx. 800 sq ft +/- pole barn offers endless possibilities for storage, workshop space, hobbies, or equipment. Home is a fixer-upper and ready for your vision and updates, making it a great opportunity for investors, DIY

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• 0.93 acre lot
• Built 1989

Tags

• LARGE COVERED WRAPAROUND PORCH
• FENCED YARD
• APPROX 800 SQ FT POLE BARN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.93 acres
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.5% in Bunnell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#378 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bunnell Elementary School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 1,080 students, 73% FRL); Buddy Taylor Middle School (math 50% / reading 45%, grade C-, #288 of 571 statewide, top 51%, 1,343 students, 63% FRL); Flagler-Palm Coast High School (math 36% / reading 51%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,523 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.49%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $360,640
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1194 Hazelnut St	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,994 (-12%)	22mo	$320,000	$160	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,041
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $21,477
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32110

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,976/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,724

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $448	-5% $395	+0% $343	+5% $291	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $173	-5% $258	+0% $343	+5% $428	+10% $514
Rate	-1.0pp $436	-0.5pp $390	base $343	+0.5pp $295	+1.0pp $246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $185,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $195,000 Active
18. 2026-01-31
    historical
19. 2025-11-28
    price $245,000
20. 2025-11-05
    price $249,000
21. 2025-10-23
    price $265,000
22. 2025-10-16
    price $269,000
23. 2025-10-08
    price $269,900
24. 2025-10-01
    price $275,000
25. 2025-09-08
    listed $280,000 Active
26. 2021-01-04
    soldstatus $216,000
27. 2020-12-31
    soldstatus $216,000
28. 2020-12-31
    soldstatus $216,000
29. 2020-12-31
    listed $216,000
30. 2020-11-03
    listed $225,000
31. 2019-09-30
    historical
32. 2019-04-11
    listed $209,000
33. 2018-12-27
    historical
34. 2018-09-04
    listed $235,000
35. 2015-03-03
    soldstatus $70,000
36. 2015-02-27
    soldstatus $70,000
37. 2014-09-05
    listed $85,000
38. 2014-04-07
    historical
39. 2013-12-10
    listed $138,000
40. 2005-07-25
    soldstatus $195,000
41. 2004-08-04
    soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,976 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,976 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥108°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,976
• − Insurance: −$1,722
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,072
• − Management: −$2,072
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $1,309
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$314
• After-tax cash flow: $3,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bunnell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #378
• US rank: #6714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,877

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.28%
• Current HPI: 271.446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+44.4% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $195,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Listed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $216,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-31 Listed $216,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-31 Sold (MLS) $216,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-31 Sold (MLS) $216,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-03 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-30 Listing Removed — Daytona MLS
• 2019-04-11 Listed $209,000 Daytona MLS
• 2018-12-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-04 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2015-02-27 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-05 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-10 Listed $138,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,976 · +594.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.