5004 Sycamore Ln · Brookshire, TX 77423

$214,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,621 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2017 5,505 sqft lot Est $245k · 12% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Brookshire, TX, just minutes from Katy Mills with easy access to I-10 for a quick commute to Katy and West Houston. This move-in ready home features new appliances and an open-concept layout with the kitchen overlooking the family room, plus pantry and pots/pans drawers for added functionality. Enjoy a bright living area, in-house utility room, and a functional floor plan perfect for everyday living. New flooring throughout the home. No carpet . Perfect for a clean, modern, and low-maintenance living space. Conveniently located near shopping, dinning, all with a low tax rate.

Key facts

• New flooring
• New appliances
• Remodeled home

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• NEW APPLIANCES
• IN-HOUSE UTILITY ROOM
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($83/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $208k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,453 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,771
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5004 Sycamore Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,621 (0%)	1mo	$214,900	$133	99
980 Lake View Cir W	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,621 (0%)	9mo	$245,000	$151	86
977 Lake View Cir W	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,621 (0%)	20mo	$249,900	$154	78
1000 Walnut Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,621 (0%)	19mo	$220,000	$136	77
34502 Park Grn	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,563 (-4%)	6mo	$215,000	$138	77
34503 Park Grn	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+4%)	6mo	$218,990	$130	76
34534 Park Vw	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+10%)	3mo	$205,000	$114	72
2072 Saras Way	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,621 (0%)	23mo	$252,500	$156	72
34706 Lake Side Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-7%)	8mo	$240,000	$159	71
1622 Dove Run	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,480 (-9%)	3mo	$249,900	$169	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-40,657
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-59,041
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,204 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$482 /mo · $5,779/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,195

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $68	+0% $7	+5% $-54	+10% $-115
Rent	-10% $-167	-5% $-80	+0% $7	+5% $94	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $62	base $7	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1001 Walnut Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,941	$1.10	45d	1	0.12mi
523 Solomon Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.5	1516	$3,480	$2.30	45d	1	0.67mi
4441 South St Brookshire, TX	3.0	3.0	1846	$1,500	$0.81	45d	1	0.75mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $214,900 Active
3. 2026-04-22
   historical
4. 2026-03-18
   listed $229,900 Active
5. 2025-10-08
   historical
6. 2025-08-29
   listed $229,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,779 · $482/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,779 · $482/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$5,779
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,116
• − Management: −$2,116
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$3,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$807
• After-tax cash flow: $889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brookshire, TX
• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $229,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+56.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,779 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.