Is The Cardinal II Plan in Magnolia, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.8% cap rate and $-361/mo modeled cash flow at a $265,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for The Cardinal II Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,150/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D Composite 43.93

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Appreciation +10.0/10.0
Cash flow +7.6/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +4.7/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
1% rule +2.2/10.0
DSCR +1.7/10.0

$265,990

The Cardinal II Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · SingleFamily · 334 Days on market

Good condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Cardinal II greets you with a covered front porch that opens into a foyer leading to a kitchen with ample counter and cabinet space. A breakfast area and a large family room create an open gathering space. The owner's suite is tucked away at the back of the home, affording maximum privacy with an ensuite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms and a full bath are located just off the kitchen. Finally, a covered patio in the backyard makes the Cardinal II plan feel even more like home.

Key facts

Covered front porch
Ample counter space
Large family room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $266k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-361 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (7.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (19.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $215k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 2166 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 334 days — a 12% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $214,955 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 334 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.72% ✗
Cap rate: 4.84%
Cash-on-cash: -5.19%
DSCR: 0.77
GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $297,971
List price: $265,990
Delta: -11.74%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40511 Tyto Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-5%)	3mo	$235,000	$158	78
40527 Goldeneye Pl	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,725 (+10%)	2mo	$270,000	$157	75
40738 Barley Straw Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+6%)	1mo	$229,990	$139	69
40723 Barley Straw Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+6%)	2mo	$249,990	$151	69
40659 Balsam Run Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-8%)	3mo	$239,000	$167	69
15423 Bell's Vireo Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,730 (+10%)	1mo	$299,000	$173	67
15419 Park Perch Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+3%)	3mo	$299,900	$186	62
15423 Park Perch Pl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-6%)	3mo	$274,900	$188	56
40759 Barley Straw Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+15%)	2mo	$293,490	$163	54
40718 Barley Straw Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+15%)	2mo	$294,890	$164	53
40735 Barley Straw Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+15%)	2mo	$279,990	$156	53
15435 Park Perch Pl	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (+8%)	0mo	$279,990	$166	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 19.9%
Equity multiple: 2.60×
Total profit: $133,674
Equity at exit: $268,436

10-year hold

IRR: 17.7%
Equity multiple: 5.81×
Total profit: $401,549
Equity at exit: $578,892

Cash invested: $83,432 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 43 active · 22 under contract
Months of supply: 9.2 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $275,000 ($165/sqft)
Median days on market: 56 d
This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +15.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

Home prices YoY: 2.4%
Rents YoY: 0.3%
Active inventory: 2166
Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,150 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,470/yr
Insurance: −$124
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
Net cashflow: $-361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,607

Max offer price $245,724

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-155	-5% $-258	+0% $-361	+5% $-464	+10% $-567
Rent	-10% $-531	-5% $-446	+0% $-361	+5% $-276	+10% $-191
Rate	-1.0pp $-211	-0.5pp $-285	base $-361	+0.5pp $-438	+1.0pp $-517

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $74,493
Closing costs: $8,939
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,901	$2.63	0d	40	0.05mi
40322 Bay Warbler Way Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,000	$1.25	37d	1	0.11mi
40322 Bay Warbler Way Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,000	$1.25	44d	1	0.11mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	139d	1	0.16mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	120d	1	0.18mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	18d	1	0.32mi
40402 Red Poppy Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,295	$1.21	10d	1	0.44mi
14703 Night Violet Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1748	$1,951	$1.12	11d	1	0.49mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	94d	1	0.66mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	139d	1	0.83mi
40427 Basalt Elm Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,975	$1.25	67d	1	0.89mi
40618 Balsam Run Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,300	$1.46	18d	1	1.06mi
40718 Barley Straw Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	50d	1	1.06mi
40830 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,950	$1.52	39d	1	1.11mi
40650 Balsam Run Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,200	$1.10	20d	1	1.13mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	139d	1	1.14mi
475 Audubons Shearwater Way Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,700	$1.32	59d	1	1.32mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	120d	1	1.45mi
913 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,750	$1.48	11d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

pricedays on market $265,990 Active 334 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $262,990 Active 333 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $262,990 Active 332 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $262,990 Active 331 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $262,990 Active 330 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $262,990 Active 328 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $262,990 Active 327 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $262,990 Active 326 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $262,990 Active 325 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $262,990 Active 324 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $262,990 Active 323 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $262,990 Active 322 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $262,990 Active 316 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $262,990 Active 315 DOM
2026-09-02

pricedays on market $262,990 Active 313 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $259,990 Active 311 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $259,990 Active 310 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $259,990 Active 309 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $259,990 Active 308 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $259,990 Active 307 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $259,990 Active 305 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $259,990 Active 304 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $259,990 Active 303 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $259,990 Active 302 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $259,990 Active 301 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $259,990 Active 300 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $259,990 Active 299 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $259,990 Active 298 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $259,990 Active 297 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $259,990 Active 296 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $259,990 Active 295 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $259,990 Active 294 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $259,990 Active 293 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $259,990 Active 292 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $259,990 Active 291 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $259,990 Active 290 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $259,990 Active 289 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $259,990 Active 288 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $259,990 Active 286 DOM
2026-08-05

pricedays on market $259,990 Active 285 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $254,990 Active 284 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $254,990 Active 283 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $254,990 Active 280 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $254,990 Active 278 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $254,990 Active 277 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $254,990 Active 273 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $254,990 Active 272 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $254,990 Active 271 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $254,990 Active 270 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $254,990 Active 269 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,795
− Mortgage interest: −$16,691
− Property taxes: −$4,470
− Insurance: −$1,490
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
− Management: −$2,064
− Depreciation: −$8,668
Taxable loss: −$9,651

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,316
After-tax cash flow: $-2,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Cardinal II Plan is a move-in-ready home with good condition and minimal maintenance required. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the modern kitchen, spacious living areas, and well-maintained exterior.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia Parkway El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Magnolia ISD
NCES district ID: 4828740
Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $71,692
Composite: 39.46/100
National rank: #3958
State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

Score: 73/100
State rank: #222
US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 32,847
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 44,900
Household income: $112,504
Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
Current HPI: 512.87
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

2026-05-14 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
2026-05-04 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
2026-02-03 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
2026-01-16 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
2025-12-01 Price Changed $256,990 Zillow
2025-11-04 Price Changed $251,990 Zillow
2025-10-24 Listed $249,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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