404 Garden St · Cahokia Heights, IL 62206

$118,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Manufactured · 124 Days on market

Built 2008 6,534 sqft lot $60/sqft · 12% above area Est $105k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

***COMBO Package****** COMBO DEAL The property 404 Garden Street, Cahokia, with an additional lot (406 Garden Street), can be purchased for 136k. Both lots are next to each other. If sold as a package deal, the owner of 404 Garden will have access to the two-car garage at 406. If you do not want the additional lot with an isolated 2-car garage, the price for the property is 118k. If you want the lot without the property, that price is 18k. The property also has a shed that can be used as a tiny home. Utility lines are already in the shed for when conversion takes place. Seller agrees to install a fence between the property lines if the property is sold separately. Don't miss out on this 2-for-1 special. Seller is open to negotiating concessions. Appliance can be negotiated and sold separately. Flag pole will not be included in the sale. Don't hesitate to tour this 4-bedroom mobile-style home. It's move-in-ready with many perks. Feel free to reach out for any questions.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 2008
• Listed 124 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $520 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cahokia CUSD 187 (suburban): math 3% / reading 5% proficiency, ranked #864 of 919 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,656/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 729% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $118k implies a 1080% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.88%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,957
• List price: $118,000
• Delta: 12.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $13,993
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $54,848
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62206

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,446/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $520

Break-even live

Break-even rent $998

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Saint Gregory Dr East Saint Louis, IL	4.0	2.0	1330	$1,395	$1.05	22d	1	0.45mi
725 Saint Norbert Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,500	$1.22	44d	1	0.79mi
223 Donald St East Saint Louis, IL	4.0	1.0	1794	$1,550	$0.86	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-02-11
   price $118,000 986-char remark

   Show marketing remark (986 chars)

   ***COMBO Package****** COMBO DEAL The property 404 Garden Street, Cahokia, with an additional lot (406 Garden Street), can be purchased for 136k. Both lots are next to each other. If sold as a package deal, the owner of 404 Garden will have access to the two-car garage at 406. If you do not want the additional lot with an isolated 2-car garage, the price for the property is 118k. If you want the lot without the property, that price is 18k. The property also has a shed that can be used as a tiny home. Utility lines are already in the shed for when conversion takes place. Seller agrees to install a fence between the property lines if the property is sold separately. Don't miss out on this 2-for-1 special. Seller is open to negotiating concessions. Appliance can be negotiated and sold separately. Flag pole will not be included in the sale. Don't hesitate to tour this 4-bedroom mobile-style home. It's move-in-ready with many perks. Feel free to reach out for any questions.

2. 2026-01-21
   listed $143,000 Active 986-char remark

   Show marketing remark (986 chars)

   ***COMBO Package****** COMBO DEAL The property 404 Garden Street, Cahokia, with an additional lot (406 Garden Street), can be purchased for 136k. Both lots are next to each other. If sold as a package deal, the owner of 404 Garden will have access to the two-car garage at 406. If you do not want the additional lot with an isolated 2-car garage, the price for the property is 118k. If you want the lot without the property, that price is 18k. The property also has a shed that can be used as a tiny home. Utility lines are already in the shed for when conversion takes place. Seller agrees to install a fence between the property lines if the property is sold separately. Don't miss out on this 2-for-1 special. Seller is open to negotiating concessions. Appliance can be negotiated and sold separately. Flag pole will not be included in the sale. Don't hesitate to tour this 4-bedroom mobile-style home. It's move-in-ready with many perks. Feel free to reach out for any questions.

3. 2026-01-21
   historical $143,000 986-char remark

   Show marketing remark (986 chars)

   ***COMBO Package****** COMBO DEAL The property 404 Garden Street, Cahokia, with an additional lot (406 Garden Street), can be purchased for 136k. Both lots are next to each other. If sold as a package deal, the owner of 404 Garden will have access to the two-car garage at 406. If you do not want the additional lot with an isolated 2-car garage, the price for the property is 118k. If you want the lot without the property, that price is 18k. The property also has a shed that can be used as a tiny home. Utility lines are already in the shed for when conversion takes place. Seller agrees to install a fence between the property lines if the property is sold separately. Don't miss out on this 2-for-1 special. Seller is open to negotiating concessions. Appliance can be negotiated and sold separately. Flag pole will not be included in the sale. Don't hesitate to tour this 4-bedroom mobile-style home. It's move-in-ready with many perks. Feel free to reach out for any questions.

4. 2025-09-03
   price $118,000
5. 2025-08-13
   price $97,400
6. 2025-03-27
   listed $99,900 Active
7. 2025-02-23
   historical
8. 2024-12-11
   price $125,000
9. 2024-08-22
   listed $130,000 Active
10. 2024-06-29
    historical
11. 2024-04-15
    listed $130,000 Active
12. 2023-10-22
    historical
13. 2023-09-21
    status Active
14. 2023-09-06
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2023-08-20
    listed $85,000 Active
16. 2023-08-03
    historical
17. 2023-07-21
    status Active
18. 2023-06-13
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2023-02-04
    listed $80,000 Active
20. 2016-06-17
    historical
21. 1993-05-10
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,446 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,062 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$616/yr (+$51/mo · 42.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$1,446
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $4,614
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,107
• After-tax cash flow: $5,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cahokia CUSD 187
• NCES district ID: 1708040
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 5% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $28,028
• Composite: 6.44/100
• National rank: #14827
• State rank: #864 of 919 in IL

Livability — Cahokia Heights

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cahokia Heights, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 19,956
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 12,959
• Household income: $33,838
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 29% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.26%
• Current HPI: 131.5144
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+1080.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $118,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Listed $143,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Coming Soon $143,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $118,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $97,400 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-27 Listed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-23 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-11 Price Changed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-22 Listed $130,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-29 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-15 Listed $130,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-22 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-21 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-06 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-20 Listed $85,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-03 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-21 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-13 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-04 Listed $80,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-17 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,446 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.