644 Bushy Trail Loop SW · Supply, NC
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $906 – $1,684
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 104°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +13.1/15.0
- Cash flow +7.6/30.0
- Schools +4.3/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- 1% rule +2.6/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- DSCR +1.7/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$294,340
644 Bushy Trail Loop SW · Supply, NC 28462
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · SingleFamily
· 88 Days on market
Built 2026
6,098 sqft lot
Garage
$166/sqft
· 12% below area
Est $336k · 12% under
$89/mo HOA · 4% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Welcome to Fox Run, offering new homes with thoughtful details and smart designs plus a convenient location. This thoughtfully designed one level home is one of our most popular floor plans! With an open concept living room, dining room and kitchen, this home is bright, spacious, and designed for entertaining guest or comfortably interacting. The kitchen features granite countertops, a tile backsplash, 36'' cabinets, a walk in corner pantry, stainless steel appliances including a refrigerator, and island with breakfast bar! Your primary suite awaits off the back of the home with a spacious walk-in closet and private bath with double sinks, a linen closet and 5' shower.
Key facts
- Granite countertops
- Tile backsplash
- 6,098 sq ft lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (17.3% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (23.8% below list).
- Recommended offer: $224k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Supply Elementary (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #625 of 1,410 statewide, top 45%, 539 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 600 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$224,323
(23.8% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.76% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.86%
- Cash-on-cash
- -5.11%
- DSCR
- 0.77
- GRM
- 10.9
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $336,301
- List price
- $294,340
- Delta
- -12.48%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 2 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1853 Pintail Ave SW | 0.62mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,824 (+3%) | 7mo | $235,000 | $129 | 56 |
| 1842 Wood Duck St SW | 0.40mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,563 (-12%) | 8mo | $240,000 | $154 | 50 |
| 1449 Holden Beach Rd SW | 0.67mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,571 (-11%) | 2mo | $300,000 | $191 | 43 |
| 1955 Duck Haven Ave SW | 0.40mi | 3/3.0 (-1) | 2,080 (+17%) | 8mo | $369,900 | $178 | 41 |
| 1660 White Duck Ct SW | 0.67mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,450 (-18%) | 1mo | $252,000 | $174 | 38 |
| 2003 Trout Ave SW | 1.07mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,974 (+11%) | 6mo | $253,000 | $128 | 36 |
| 1856 Oxpen Rd SW | 1.37mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,404 (-21%) | 1mo | $230,000 | $164 | 34 |
| 1360 Sweetwater Ln SW | 1.30mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 1,984 (+12%) | 7mo | $389,000 | $196 | 32 |
| 1667 White Duck Ct SW | 0.69mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,509 (-15%) | 7mo | $199,900 | $132 | 32 |
| 2188 Trout Ave SW | 1.41mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,480 (-17%) | 8mo | $210,000 | $142 | 28 |
| 1891 Oxpen Rd SW | 1.40mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,344 (-24%) | 8mo | $225,000 | $167 | 28 |
| 2186 Lakeside Ave SW | 1.28mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,202 (+24%) | 12mo | $245,000 | $111 | 25 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -25.0%
- Equity multiple
- 0.15×
- Total profit
- $-69,960
- Equity at exit
- $43,887
10-year hold
- IRR
- -20.7%
- Equity multiple
- -0.08×
- Total profit
- $-89,344
- Equity at exit
- $25,449
Cash invested: $82,415 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State North Carolina
- 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 20 active · 4 under contract
- Months of supply
- 120.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $284,870 ($177/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 82 d
- This list price
- 75% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +7.2% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 28462
- Active inventory
- 600
- Price-to-rent
- 10.9×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,243 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,544
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$368 /mo · $4,415/yr
- Insurance
- −$123
- HOA
- −$89
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$471
- Net cashflow
- $-351
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$2,687
Max offer price
$243,555
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-148 | -5% $-249 | +0% $-351 | +5% $-453 | +10% $-554 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-528 | -5% $-440 | +0% $-351 | +5% $-262 | +10% $-174 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-203 | -0.5pp $-276 | base $-351 | +0.5pp $-427 | +1.0pp $-505 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $73,585
- Closing costs
- $8,830
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Community management available
- Financial info
- Association fee paid annually
- HOA & community
- Homeowners association with annual fee (management provided)
Exterior
- Parking
- 2 total parking spaces2-car attached garage facing the front with concrete surface and garage door opener
- Security
- Smoke detector(s)
- Utilities
- Public waterSewer availableWater availableUnderground utilitiesElectric service
- Home design
- Single family residenceNew constructionOne storyEntry level: 1Residential zoning
- Construction
- Vinyl siding and frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationHome warranty included
- Exterior features
- Covered front and rear porchesPorchFront porchRear porchPaved roadsPrivate roadHas viewNo fencing indicatedStreet lightsSidewalksCommunity pool
Interior
- Kitchen
- RefrigeratorRangeDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveENERGY STAR qualified appliancesElectric water heaterKitchen islandPantry
- Bedrooms
- Master downstairs
- Flooring
- Carpet
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathroomsAccessible full bath
- Heating & cooling
- Heat pump heating (electric)Central air conditioningHeat pump cooling
- Interior features
- Master suite on the main levelWalk-in closet(s)High ceilingsEntrance foyerKitchen islandPantryUnfurnished
- Laundry & utility
- Laundry room with washer hookup
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $294,340 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $294,340 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $294,340 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $294,340 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $294,340 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $294,340 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $294,340 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $294,340 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $294,340 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $294,340 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $294,340 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $294,340 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $294,340 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $294,340 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $294,340 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $294,340 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $294,340 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $294,340 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $294,340 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-07-12days on market $294,340 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $294,340 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $294,340 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $294,340 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-07-08days on market $294,340 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $294,340 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $294,340 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $294,340 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-07-04days on market $294,340 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $294,340 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $294,340 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $294,340 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $294,340 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $294,340 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $294,340 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $294,340 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $294,340 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-06-25days on market $294,340 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-06-23days on market $294,340 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $294,340 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $294,340 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $294,340 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $294,340 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $294,340 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $294,340 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $294,340 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $294,340 Active 29 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $294,340 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $294,340 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $294,340 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $294,340 Active 23 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $26,919
- − Mortgage interest
- −$16,488
- − Property taxes
- −$4,415
- − Insurance
- −$1,472
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,154
- − Management
- −$2,154
- − HOA
- −$1,068
- − Depreciation
- −$8,563
- Taxable loss
- −$9,393
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,254
- After-tax cash flow
- $-1,957/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
80/100
None rehab
This single-family home in Fox Run is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a well-maintained exterior, hardwood floors, and neutral paint colors. The kitchen and bathrooms are in good condition, and the home is move-in ready.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Supply Elementary
F
NC #625/1,410
Nat'l #17,692/41,679
Middle
Cedar Grove Middle
F
NC #305/475
Nat'l #8,059/14,009
High
West Brunswick High
C-
NC #281/535
Nat'l #4,893/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Brunswick County Schools
- NCES district ID
- 3700420
- Math proficiency
- 45% ▲ 4.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 47% ▲ 4.00%
- Median HH income
- $47,494
- Composite
- 39.23/100
- National rank
- #4011
- State rank
- #82 of 178 in NC
Livability — Supply
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- County
- Brunswick County · 152,111 people
- City population
- 12,340
- Metro
- Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
- Population (ZIP)
- 12,340
- Household income
- $60,349
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 10% of renters
Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 152,111 people
- By 2030
- 165,705 · +8.9%
- By 2040
- 188,494 · +23.9%
- By 2050
- 206,228 · +35.6%
- By 2075
- 237,876 · +56.4%
- By 2100
- 251,451 · +65.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (87%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 1% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 99% English-only · Spanish 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -259.44%
- Current HPI
- 144.2462
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 26
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 2 | $213B |
|
||
| Retail | 2 | $95B |
|
||
| Industrial Conglomerate | 1 | $38B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Utilities | 1 | $30B |
|
||
| Industrial Machinery | 1 | $19B |
|
||
Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-05-12 Listed $294,340 Hive MLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…