125 Kelly Dr · Williamsburg, OH 45176

$355,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,882 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2019 $189/sqft · at area comps Est $357k · at est. $27/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Kelly Dr! This beautiful newer construction home built in 2019 offers 3 bedrooms and two bathrooms in the desirable Williamsburg area. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the living room and kitchen , creating a bright and inviting space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy the comfort of newer construction with thoughtful design and functionality throughout. Don't miss this opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a desirable area!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2019
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-401/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#798 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Williamsburg Local (suburban): math 63% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #192 of 656 in OH (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Williamsburg Elementary School (math 68% / reading 72%, grade A-, #380 of 1,584 statewide, top 25%, 412 students, 40% FRL); Williamsburg High School (math 60% / reading 68%, grade B-, #193 of 781 statewide, top 25%, 535 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 996 units permitted in Clermont County in 2024 (210 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,900/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $290k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $290,000 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.40%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,385
• List price: $355,000
• Delta: -0.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Cornerstone Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,053 (+9%)	0mo	$364,900	$178	66
122 Cornerstone Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,053 (+9%)	2mo	$365,750	$178	65
125 Cornerstone Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,053 (+9%)	10mo	$354,900	$173	60
151 Zachary Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-14%)	12mo	$332,000	$204	52
131 Zachary Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,123 (+13%)	17mo	$366,000	$172	45
831 Southwynd Trl	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,620 (-14%)	7mo	$260,000	$160	40
145 Amber Way	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,682 (-11%)	22mo	$232,000	$138	31
144 Santa Barbara Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (-13%)	22mo	$400,000	$244	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-59,687
• Equity at exit: $52,932

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-54,857
• Equity at exit: $30,694

Cash invested: $99,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45176

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,454/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,942

Max offer price $349,102

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $67	+0% $-33	+5% $-134	+10% $-234
Rent	-10% $-262	-5% $-148	+0% $-33	+5% $81	+10% $196
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $57	base $-33	+0.5pp $-125	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,750
• Closing costs: $10,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
128 Kelly Dr Williamsburg, OH	4.0	3.0	2084	$2,900	$1.39	3d	1	0.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-03
   price $355,000 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Welcome to Kelly Dr! This beautiful newer construction home built in 2019 offers 3 bedrooms and two bathrooms in the desirable Williamsburg area. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the living room and kitchen , creating a bright and inviting space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy the comfort of newer construction with thoughtful design and functionality throughout. Don't miss this opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a desirable area!

2. 2026-03-18
   price $365,000 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Welcome to Kelly Dr! This beautiful newer construction home built in 2019 offers 3 bedrooms and two bathrooms in the desirable Williamsburg area. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the living room and kitchen , creating a bright and inviting space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy the comfort of newer construction with thoughtful design and functionality throughout. Don't miss this opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a desirable area!

3. 2026-03-03
   listed $375,000 Active 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Welcome to Kelly Dr! This beautiful newer construction home built in 2019 offers 3 bedrooms and two bathrooms in the desirable Williamsburg area. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the living room and kitchen , creating a bright and inviting space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy the comfort of newer construction with thoughtful design and functionality throughout. Don't miss this opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a desirable area!

4. 2021-01-22
   soldstatus $289,900 Sold 321-char remark

   Show marketing remark (321 chars)

   New Construction in Williamsburg. The Sutton model boasts 3 bedroom w/ master suite, granite counters, stone fireplaces, custom tiled floors and baths, open floor plans, full basement with plenty of upgrades ready for you to move in. Many options available. 3 distinct models available. Move in ready or build to suit.

5. 2020-09-21
   historical Contingency Pending 321-char remark

   Show marketing remark (321 chars)

   New Construction in Williamsburg. The Sutton model boasts 3 bedroom w/ master suite, granite counters, stone fireplaces, custom tiled floors and baths, open floor plans, full basement with plenty of upgrades ready for you to move in. Many options available. 3 distinct models available. Move in ready or build to suit.

6. 2020-07-16
   price $289,900 321-char remark

   Show marketing remark (321 chars)

   New Construction in Williamsburg. The Sutton model boasts 3 bedroom w/ master suite, granite counters, stone fireplaces, custom tiled floors and baths, open floor plans, full basement with plenty of upgrades ready for you to move in. Many options available. 3 distinct models available. Move in ready or build to suit.

7. 2020-07-02
   listed $299,900 Active 321-char remark

   Show marketing remark (321 chars)

   New Construction in Williamsburg. The Sutton model boasts 3 bedroom w/ master suite, granite counters, stone fireplaces, custom tiled floors and baths, open floor plans, full basement with plenty of upgrades ready for you to move in. Many options available. 3 distinct models available. Move in ready or build to suit.

8. 2020-06-21
   historical
9. 2020-05-29
   price $319,900
10. 2020-02-21
    listed $339,900 Active
11. 2019-12-15
    historical
12. 2019-11-16
    listed $319,900 Active
13. 2018-05-03
    soldstatus $49,500
14. 2018-04-27
    soldstatus $16,500 Sold
15. 2018-04-17
    historical Accept Backup Offers
16. 2016-10-26
    listed $16,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,454 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,496 · $375/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,042/yr (+$87/mo · 30.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,886
• − Property taxes: −$3,454
• − Insurance: −$1,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,784
• − Management: −$2,784
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$10,327
• Taxable loss: −$6,534
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,568
• After-tax cash flow: $1,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsburg Local
• NCES district ID: 3904636
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,505
• Composite: 56.46/100
• National rank: #1158
• State rank: #192 of 656 in OH

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #798
• US rank: #14626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Williamsburg, OH
• County: Clermont · 218,829 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 9,813
• Household income: $66,363
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8.7

Population outlook (Clermont County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 210,162 people
• By 2030: 212,463 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 212,504 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 205,957 · -2.0%
• By 2075: 182,728 · -13.1%
• By 2100: 143,986 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clermont

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.8) · D 31.7% · R 67.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.4pp · 2024: -35.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.8 2020: R+36.6 2016: R+41.3 2012: R+35.5 2008: R+32.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.59%
• Current HPI: 292.6718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+2051.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $355,000 Cincy MLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $365,000 Cincy MLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $375,000 Cincy MLS
• 2021-01-22 Sold (MLS) $289,900 Cincy MLS
• 2020-09-21 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2020-07-16 Price Changed $289,900 Cincy MLS
• 2020-07-02 Listed $299,900 Cincy MLS
• 2020-06-21 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2020-05-29 Price Changed $319,900 Cincy MLS
• 2020-02-21 Listed $339,900 Cincy MLS
• 2019-12-15 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2019-11-16 Listed $319,900 Cincy MLS
• 2018-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
• 2018-04-27 Sold (MLS) $16,500 Cincy MLS
• 2018-04-17 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2016-10-26 Listed $16,500 Cincy MLS

Property tax history

+62.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,454 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.