4019 Copperleaf Ln · Poinciana, FL 34759

$278,785

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,840 sqft · Land · 255 Days on market

Built 2025 5,750 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Sep 2025! Prepare dinner while catching up on the days events from this home's open kitchen which overlooks a spacious great room and dining area. Retreat to your primary suite that is conveniently situated in the back of the home for plenty of privacy. Now selling, Lake Deer Estates offers new single-family homes in Polk County, FL. Surrounded by scenic lakes, this community is located minutes away from Hwy 27, providing convenient to access major metro areas. Residents will have access to resort-style amenities including a pool and cabana, a dog park, and a playground. Poinciana is a rapidly growing sector of Polk County, k

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Primary suite
• Open kitchen

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT FEATURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD applicable; Living area reported by builder; building area total reported by builder
• Financial info: Home warranty included
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Lake Deer Estates Homeowners Association, Inc.; Assoc of Poinciana); Monthly HOA approximately $15.50; additional annual association fees listed; Association amenities include playground and pool; Deed restrictions; Street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20x20); Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Under construction (estimated completion Sept 17, 2025); South facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Meritage Homes (model: Foxglove)
• Exterior features: Patio; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Asphalt road access; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combo; Blinds on windows; Security system; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,592 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-43,888
• Equity at exit: $60,948

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-53,935
• Equity at exit: $58,737

Cash invested: $78,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,186 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,462
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,025/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,443

Max offer price $242,868

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,696
• Closing costs: $8,364
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3181 Viceroy Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1610	$1,900	$1.18	3d	1	0.16mi
3630 Walking Stick Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1999	$2,150	$1.08	23d	1	0.25mi
157 Cimarron Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2097	$2,000	$0.95	3d	1	0.32mi
217 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,085	$1.25	18d	1	0.36mi
423 Churchill Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1711	$1,975	$1.15	23d	1	0.40mi
237 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,950	$1.25	23d	1	0.40mi
245 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,125	$1.71	23d	1	0.43mi
430 Big Sioux Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2430	$2,000	$0.82	23d	1	0.46mi
101 Big Black Dr Kissimmee, FL	5.0	3.0	2530	$2,500	$0.99	23d	1	0.52mi
377 Cimarron Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1999	$1,950	$0.98	11d	1	0.54mi
802 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,090	$1.25	11d	1	0.57mi
733 James Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	23d	1	0.63mi
2004 Red Fox Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	2186	$2,399	$1.10	2d	10	0.64mi
2129 Hibiscus Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$2,100	$1.19	3d	1	0.67mi
260 Hyacinth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,765	$1.26	23d	1	0.74mi
344 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,825	$1.09	3d	1	0.75mi
263 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,750	$1.09	14d	1	0.78mi
1157 Hudson Harbor Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,850	$1.14	23d	1	0.79mi
337 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,980	$1.19	13d	1	0.79mi
994 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,825	$1.10	23d	1	0.80mi
325 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,995	$1.24	3d	1	0.81mi
260 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,065	$1.24	3d	1	0.81mi
642 Desmoines Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1826	$1,975	$1.08	3d	1	0.82mi
119 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,095	$1.25	23d	1	0.83mi
108 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,000	$1.24	14d	1	0.83mi
1167 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1868	$1,875	$1.00	14d	1	0.86mi
207 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,855	$1.16	3d	1	0.87mi
210 Goldenrod Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,875	$1.15	23d	1	0.89mi
1160 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$4,500	$2.08	23d	1	0.90mi
935 Cumberland Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,599	$1.27	13d	1	0.90mi
650 Hudson Valley Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,734	$1.10	3d	1	0.91mi
1144 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	23d	1	0.92mi
1142 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,700	$1.32	23d	1	0.93mi
943 Cumberland Dr Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,695	$1.32	23d	1	0.94mi
1110 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2110	$1,575	$0.75	23d	1	0.94mi
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	23d	1	0.95mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	23d	1	0.98mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	3d	1	0.98mi
1282 Clove Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1906	$1,600	$0.84	3d	1	1.00mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	14d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $278,785
3. 2026-04-02
   price $278,990
4. 2026-03-03
   price $304,805
5. 2026-02-25
   price $301,970
6. 2026-02-12
   price $304,805
7. 2025-10-10
   price $311,805
8. 2025-09-15
   price $301,805
9. 2025-08-22
   price $345,805
10. 2025-08-22
    listed $295,805 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,025 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,025 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,616
• − Property taxes: −$3,025
• − Insurance: −$1,394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,110
• Taxable loss: −$7,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,755
• After-tax cash flow: $-685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $278,785 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $278,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $304,805 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $301,970 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $304,805 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $311,805 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $301,805 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $345,805 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Listed $295,805 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,025 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.