29 Prospect St · Fredonia, NY 14063

$149,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1897 5,988 sqft lot Est $157k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom home in the Village of Fredonia. Newer kitchen, basement; covered porch. Nice centralized location walking distance to downtown Village center. Prior owners have done some recent remodeling.

Key facts

• Brand-new carpeting
• Double closets
• New roof

Tags

• HERRINGBONE TILE FLOORING
• OVERSIZED EATING AREA
• BRAND-NEW CARPETING
• DOUBLE CLOSETS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2 stories; Existing condition; Asphalt roof; Composite siding, stone, and vinyl siding exterior
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 52 x 116)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Oven
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 — Second level (approx. 17 x 15); Bedroom 2 — Second level (approx. 15 x 7); Bedroom 3 — Second level (approx. 15 x 7)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Has basement (partial, crawl space with dirt floor)
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.4% in Fredonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in NY, #1,446 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: amenities C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Fredonia Central School District (town): math 55% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #376 of 590 in NY (top 64%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $150k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,440
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 Lambert Ave	0.46mi	4/1.5	1,260 (-2%)	9mo	$155,000	$123	66
147 Lambert Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,232 (-4%)	6mo	$152,000	$123	57
9 Ahrens Pl	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,345 (+5%)	13mo	$163,000	$121	52
69 Cottage St Unit S	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,232 (-4%)	10mo	$225,000	$183	51
20 Eagle St	0.38mi	4/1.0	1,436 (+12%)	9mo	$90,000	$63	50
10 Georges Pl	0.74mi	4/1.5	1,404 (+10%)	8mo	$228,000	$162	40
19 James Pl	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (+10%)	19mo	$167,500	$119	39
86 Liberty St	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,472 (+15%)	10mo	$165,500	$112	35
46 Holmes Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-6%)	24mo	$184,900	$154	35
36 Lowell Pl	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (+15%)	19mo	$360,000	$245	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,682
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $10,463
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14063

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,371/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,324

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,371 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,452 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$81/yr (+$7/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,371
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $390
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$94
• After-tax cash flow: $2,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredonia Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611520
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,491
• Composite: 43.1/100
• National rank: #3086
• State rank: #376 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fredonia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #1446

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredonia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,722

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Italian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.55%
• Current HPI: 253.5334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+275.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-11-11 Sold (MLS) $40,500 UNYREIS
• 2015-09-22 Listed $27,500 UNYREIS
• 2012-03-22 Listed $55,900 UNYREIS
• 2006-04-06 Sold (MLS) $56,000 UNYREIS
• 2005-08-01 Listed $64,500 UNYREIS
• 1997-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records
• 1990-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,371 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.