207 Murphy St · Linden, MI 48451

$295,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1971 0.25 ac lot Est $274k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Superb investment property in the heart of Linden! Perfect for the seasoned investor or the investor just starting out and looking to house hack! Excellent opportunity to build equity - live in one unit and rent out the other. Each unit features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, laundry/mechanical room, 1-car attached garage and private patio space. Walking distance to Downtown Linden - enjoy local eateries and brewery, classis car cruise-ins, music at the Mill. Cool off at Byram Lake at Linden County Park. Separate metered utilities. Current tenants are month to month and will vacate by closing. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Local eateries
• Investment property
• Byram lake

Tags

• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• PRIVATE PATIO SPACE
• LOCAL EATERIES
• BYRAM LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed; Zoning: Multiple

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Multi-family residential income property; One story
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.25-acre lot (lot dimensions 90 x 92 x 114 x 135)
• Exterior features: Private entrance; Exterior lighting; Patio; Porch; Paved road access

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan(s); No central air
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-193/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.7% in Linden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#170 in MI, #4,456 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Linden Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #119 of 540 in MI (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $279,500 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
902 N Bridge St	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (-3%)	6mo	$200,000	$136	81
712 Bush St	0.20mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,500 (-1%)	3mo	$255,000	$170	79
802 Murphy Rd	0.06mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,430 (-6%)	9mo	$202,500	$142	73
301 Lindenwood Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,520 (-0%)	0mo	$315,000	$207	69
717 Murphy Ct	0.05mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,700 (+12%)	1mo	$237,000	$139	68
313 Maple Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (+0%)	1mo	$315,000	$207	66
513 N Bridge St	0.20mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,441 (-5%)	9mo	$220,000	$153	66
245 Andrea Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-5%)	8mo	$322,500	$222	63
202 Oak St	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,398 (-8%)	6mo	$282,000	$202	61
214 Willow Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,403 (-8%)	2mo	$253,000	$180	58
1565 W Rolston Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (+4%)	2mo	$320,500	$202	54
802 Tickner St	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,642 (+8%)	7mo	$274,900	$167	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-48,671
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-43,066
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48451

• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$554 /mo · $6,650/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,815

Max offer price $292,159

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $67	+0% $-16	+5% $-100	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-126	+0% $-16	+5% $94	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $59	base $-16	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
334 Saddlebrook Dr Linden, MI	4.0	2.5	2003	$2,795	$1.40	6d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $295,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 633-char remark

   Show marketing remark (631 chars)

   Superb investment property in the heart of Linden! Perfect for the seasoned investor or the investor just starting out and looking to house hack! Excellent opportunity to build equity - live in one unit and rent out the other. Each unit features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, laundry/mechanical room, 1-car attached garage and private patio space. Walking distance to Downtown Linden - enjoy local eateries and brewery, classis car cruise-ins, music at the Mill. Cool off at Byram Lake at Linden County Park. Separate metered utilities. Current tenants are month to month and will vacate by closing. Schedule your private showing today!

3. 2026-06-17
   listed $295,000 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (631 chars)

   Superb investment property in the heart of Linden! Perfect for the seasoned investor or the investor just starting out and looking to house hack! Excellent opportunity to build equity - live in one unit and rent out the other. Each unit features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, laundry/mechanical room, 1-car attached garage and private patio space. Walking distance to Downtown Linden - enjoy local eateries and brewery, classis car cruise-ins, music at the Mill. Cool off at Byram Lake at Linden County Park. Separate metered utilities. Current tenants are month to month and will vacate by closing. Schedule your private showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,650 · $554/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,650 · $554/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$6,650
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,683
• − Management: −$2,683
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$5,058
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,214
• After-tax cash flow: $1,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Linden Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2621690
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $69,129
• Composite: 41.24/100
• National rank: #3532
• State rank: #119 of 540 in MI

Livability — Linden

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #4456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Linden, MI
• Population (ZIP): 15,993

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.03%
• Current HPI: 260.4332
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+145.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $295,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-17 Listed $295,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-22 Sold (MLS) $250,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-22 Sold (MLS) $250,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-07-08 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-08 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-07-02 Listed $249,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-02 Listed $249,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,650 · +130.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.