15150 Archdale Ln · Rosemount, MN 55068

$309,985

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,769 sqft · Townhouse · 14 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $175/sqft · 15% below area Est $363k · 15% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home is move-in ready! This modern two-story townhome boasts a 2 car garage and sits on a spacious homesite. As you enter the unit, you'll notice the large front porch perfect for indoor-outdoor living. The first floor features an open-plan layout with a Great Room, dining room, and kitchen that includes a kitchen island and stainless steel appliances. Upstairs, you'll find a versatile loft, two secondary bedrooms, and a spacious owner's suite, complete with a retreat and a low maintenance yard. With its highly functional layout and modern features this home is sure to be popular with buyers in today's market and won't last long.

Key facts

• Large front porch
• Open-plan layout
• Versatile loft

Tags

• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-PLAN LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT
• SPACIOUS OWNER'S SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-151 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Rosemount — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#5 in MN, #148 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Rosemount Elementary (math 57% / reading 51%, grade C, #352 of 857 statewide, top 41%, 775 students, 27% FRL); Rosemount Middle (math 48% / reading 58%, grade C+, #53 of 258 statewide, top 22%, 1,205 students, 20% FRL); Rosemount Senior High (math 54% / reading 67%, grade C+, #43 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 2,425 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 667 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $252,042 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,207
• List price: $309,985
• Delta: -14.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1003 130th Ct E	1.89mi	3/2.5	1,667 (-6%)	3mo	$369,990	$222	53
1281 142nd St E	0.85mi	3/3.0	1,769 (0%)	48mo	$355,250	$201	43
14101 Aberdeen Way	0.87mi	3/3.0	1,757 (-1%)	27mo	$320,000	$182	42
13480 Brick Path #804	2.13mi	3/3.0	1,945 (+10%)	59mo	$275,000	$141	26
14241 Aspen Ave	0.82mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,995 (+13%)	28mo	$396,627	$199	19
13620 Carrakay Way	1.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,988 (+12%)	49mo	$486,805	$245	17
2595 136th St W	2.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-28%)	19mo	$243,000	$190	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-51,927
• Equity at exit: $46,220

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-23,006
• Equity at exit: $26,802

Cash invested: $86,796 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 56 active · 20 under contract
• Median asking: $347,450 ($195/sqft)
• Median days on market: 26 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +5.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 55068

• Home prices YoY: -30.8%
• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 667
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,520 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,650/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,712

Max offer price $288,120

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $-44	+0% $-151	+5% $-258	+10% $-365
Rent	-10% $-350	-5% $-251	+0% $-151	+5% $-52	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-72	base $-151	+0.5pp $-231	+1.0pp $-313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,496
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15011 Audrey Ave Rosemount, MN	3.0	3.0	1782	$2,300	$1.29	29d	1	0.01mi
15008 Ahena Curv Rosemount, MN	3.0	3.0	1782	$2,400	$1.35	30d	1	0.03mi
14990 Adare Way Rosemount, MN	3.0	3.0	1800	$2,650	$1.47	113d	1	0.05mi
14947 Adare Way Rosemount, MN	3.0	3.0	1800	$2,545	$1.41	120d	1	0.07mi
14854 Ardee Pl Rosemount, MN	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,590	$1.45	62d	1	0.10mi
1003 148th St W Rosemount, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1264	$2,445	$1.93	0d	28	0.20mi
14211 Akron Ave Rosemount, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$2,685	$2.65	0d	23	0.59mi
14215 Adalyn Ave Rosemount, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	948	$2,850	$3.00	0d	82	0.79mi
1211 142nd St E Rosemount, MN	3.0	2.5	1770	$1,200	$0.68	100d	1	0.84mi
14160 Addison Trl Rosemount, MN	4.0	3.5	2520	$2,795	$1.11	110d	1	0.89mi
14436 Allerton Way Unit 14436 Rosemount, MN	3.0	2.5	1719	$2,495	$1.45	0d	1	0.98mi
14436 Allerton Way Unit 14436 Rosemount, MN	3.0	2.5	1719	$2,495	$1.45	3d	1	0.98mi
14485 Allerton Way Rosemount, MN	3.0	3.0	1777	$2,500	$1.41	27d	1	1.01mi
13721 Kaylemore Trl Unit 13721 Rosemount, MN	4.0	3.0	1800	$2,949	$1.64	120d	1	1.21mi
13721 Kaylemore Trl Unit 13721 Rosemount, MN	4.0	3.0	1800	$2,949	$1.64	94d	1	1.21mi
13652 Kaylemore Trl Rosemount, MN	3.0	2.5	1665	$2,599	$1.56	79d	1	1.32mi
14291 Banyan Ln Rosemount, MN	2.0	1.5	1595	$1,875	$1.18	10d	1	1.35mi
14291 Banyan Ln Rosemount, MN	2.0	1.5	1595	$1,875	$1.18	42d	1	1.35mi
14291 Banyan Ln Rosemount, MN	2.0	1.5	1595	$1,595	$1.00	87d	1	1.35mi
14349 Banyan Ln Rosemount, MN	3.0	2.5	1606	$2,299	$1.43	40d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lennar
• HOA & community: HOA managed by AssociaMonthly association fee of $280HOA includes hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2-car garage
• Utilities: City waterCity sewer150 amp electrical serviceNatural gas
• Home design: Residential attached propertyTwo levelsNew constructionEntry/plan includes porch
• Construction: Concrete and frame constructionPitched roof (8 years old or newer)Slab foundationBuilt by Lennar
• Exterior features: Front porchStone and vinyl exteriorIn-ground sprinkler systemSod included in priceUnderground utilitiesAssociation-maintained roadsCity street with curbs and paved streets

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliancesRangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorKitchen center island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms totalPrimary suite on one levelUpper-level bedrooms and loft (loft adjacent to upper-level area)
• Bathrooms: Primary bath with 3/4 shower, double sink and private accessUpper-level full bathroomMain-floor half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Air-to-air exchangerHumidifierTankless water heaterIndoor sprinkler systemWalk-in closetsPrimary bedroom with private bathInformal dining area / kitchen-dining comboKitchen center islandPorch
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry room with washer and gas dryer hookupsWasher/dryer hookup included

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-07-16
   days on market $309,985 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-07-15
   days on marketlisting id $309,985 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-07-14
   days on market $309,985 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-07-13
   days on market $309,985 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-07-13
   days on market $309,985 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-07-11
   days on market $309,985 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-07-10
   days on market $309,985 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-07-09
   days on market $309,985 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-07-07
   pricelisting id $309,985 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-06-30
    days on marketlisting id $338,985 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-29
    price $338,985 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-29
    days on market $314,985 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-28
    days on market $314,985 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-27
    days on market $314,985 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-26
    days on market $314,985 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-06-24
    pricedays on marketlisting id $314,985 Active 1 DOM
17. 2026-06-22
    pricestatus $338,985 Active 6 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    status Pending
19. 2026-05-12
    listed $329,985 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,364
• − Property taxes: −$4,650
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,420
• − Management: −$2,420
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$7,176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,722
• After-tax cash flow: $-91/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,845–$26,535 screening

This modern townhouse is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the exterior siding, replace the carpet with hardwood flooring, and install smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient for potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rosemount Elementary C MN #352/857 Nat'l #10,700/41,679 Middle Rosemount Middle C+ MN #53/258 Nat'l #2,873/14,009 High Rosemount Senior High C+ MN #43/471 Nat'l #3,495/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2732390
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,559
• Composite: 49.48/100
• National rank: #2000
• State rank: #58 of 301 in MN

A Composite livability gradescore 89/100

Livability — Rosemount

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #148

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosemount, MN
• County: Dakota County · 450,671 people
• City population: 33,119
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 33,119
• Household income: $127,798
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 7% Asian 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.45%
• Current HPI: 223.9769
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.02%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lennar
• HOA & community: HOA managed by AssociaMonthly association fee of $280HOA includes hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2-car garage
• Utilities: City waterCity sewer150 amp electrical serviceNatural gas
• Home design: Residential attached propertyTwo levelsNew constructionEntry/plan includes porch
• Construction: Concrete and frame constructionPitched roof (8 years old or newer)Slab foundationBuilt by Lennar
• Exterior features: Front porchStone and vinyl exteriorIn-ground sprinkler systemSod included in priceUnderground utilitiesAssociation-maintained roadsCity street with curbs and paved streets

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliancesRangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorKitchen center island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms totalPrimary suite on one levelUpper-level bedrooms and loft (loft adjacent to upper-level area)
• Bathrooms: Primary bath with 3/4 shower, double sink and private accessUpper-level full bathroomMain-floor half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Air-to-air exchangerHumidifierTankless water heaterIndoor sprinkler systemWalk-in closetsPrimary bedroom with private bathInformal dining area / kitchen-dining comboKitchen center islandPorch
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry room with washer and gas dryer hookupsWasher/dryer hookup included

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-23 Listed $314,985 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-22 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-22 Price Changed $338,985 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $329,985 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid