1103 Gray Dr · Killeen, TX 76541

$114,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,162 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1954 9,069 sqft lot Est $173k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Cute home and all ready for a quick move in!

Key facts

• 9,069 sq ft lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Curbs and sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Converted garage (main-level)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces east; Resale property; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof; Assessor-reported year built
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Patio includes refrigerator; Fenced backyard with chain link, wood and privacy fencing; City lot, less than quarter acre; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level; Gas range; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning (one unit)
• Interior features: Ceramic tile and hardwood flooring; Converted garage used as a main-level living space; Open living and dining areas
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-669/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $94k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Killeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, employment D.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,455 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,138
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1602 N 22nd St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,276 (+10%)	3mo	$196,000	$154	65
1603 N 24th St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,066 (-8%)	7mo	$166,000	$156	63
504 Alexander St	0.51mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,218 (+5%)	3mo	$140,300	$115	59
601 Cardinal Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (-6%)	4mo	$146,800	$134	58
1004 Stewart St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	995 (-14%)	8mo	$67,500	$68	55
502 Cardinal Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,202 (+3%)	16mo	$145,000	$121	51
608 N 24th St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-13%)	19mo	$150,000	$149	38
1411 Connell Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,047 (-10%)	18mo	$165,000	$158	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.26% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,115
• Equity at exit: $46,953

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $18,532
• Equity at exit: $68,891

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76541

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $945 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,818/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,015

Max offer price $105,056

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-23	+0% $-56	+5% $-88	+10% $-121
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-93	+0% $-56	+5% $-18	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-26	base $-56	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1204 N 18th St Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.06mi
1312 Carol Way Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1221	$1,100	$0.90	14d	1	0.10mi
1104 Duncan Ave Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	786	$852	$1.08	22d	1	0.11mi
1108 Stewart St Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	995	$1,150	$1.16	24d	1	0.16mi
1015 N 14th St Unit 8 Killeen, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$695	$0.99	44d	1	0.22mi
1015 N 14th St Unit 2 Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$845	$0.99	44d	1	0.22mi
1015 N 14th St Apt 1 Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	44d	1	0.22mi
1015 N 14th St Unit 2 Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$845	$0.99	14d	1	0.22mi
1015 N 14th St Unit 4 Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$845	$0.99	24d	1	0.22mi
1714 Stewart St Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	729	$950	$1.30	44d	1	0.26mi
503 E Dean Ave Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	776	$825	$1.06	14d	1	0.28mi
715 Cardinal Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1142	$800	$0.70	44d	1	0.28mi
1801 Stewart St Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,045	$1.20	14d	1	0.28mi
1710 Cole St Unit B Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$750	$0.88	44d	1	0.30mi
1015 N 10th St Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,100	$0.98	44d	1	0.30mi
1107 White Ave Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	758	$800	$1.06	44d	1	0.30mi
1703 Smith Dr Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	1176	$900	$0.77	24d	1	0.31mi
1701 Elkins Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	918	$1,000	$1.09	14d	1	0.32mi
1704 Smith Dr Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,000	$1.08	44d	1	0.34mi
608 N 18th St Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	838	$915	$1.09	14d	1	0.34mi
905 Parmer Ave Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	836	$850	$1.02	14d	1	0.35mi
1117 N 8th St Killeen, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	675	$800	$1.19	44d	5	0.41mi
1901 N 10th St Unit 3 Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	920	$745	$0.81	44d	1	0.42mi
501 N 18th St Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	1286	$1,250	$0.97	24d	1	0.42mi
1801 Poage Ave Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	845	$800	$0.95	22d	1	0.43mi
1507 N 8th St Unit 8 Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$995	$0.89	24d	1	0.44mi
1903 Duncan Ave Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	787	$650	$0.83	44d	1	0.45mi
1107 Middleton St Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	792	$950	$1.20	22d	1	0.46mi
1107 Middleton St Unit 1 Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	792	$950	$1.20	24d	1	0.46mi
705 Crockett Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1174	$1,095	$0.93	44d	1	0.48mi
414 East Avenue A Unit 106 Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$705	$0.88	14d	1	0.50mi
414 East Avenue A #200 Killeen, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$595	$0.85	44d	1	0.50mi
1006 N 4th St Unit 8 Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$700	$0.93	44d	1	0.51mi
1915 Poage Ave Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$850	$0.97	44d	1	0.53mi
508 Patton Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	924	$1,150	$1.24	24d	1	0.55mi
1309 Greenwood Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	925	$900	$0.97	22d	1	0.56mi
110 E Texas Ave Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	832	$825	$0.99	22d	1	0.57mi
1104 E Avenue E Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$800	$1.09	44d	1	0.62mi
1403 N 2nd St Killeen, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	673	$745	$1.11	14d	5	0.64mi
1809 N W S Young Dr Unit 1B Killeen, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	44d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $114,900 Active
17. 1995-07-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,818 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,103 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$285/yr (+$24/mo · 15.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,818
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$907
• − Management: −$907
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$2,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$636
• After-tax cash flow: $-33/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Killeen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #853
• US rank: #15359

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Killeen, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 163,398
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,011
• Household income: $37,349
• Rent vs Own: 76.4% rent · 23.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 32% White 31% Black 27% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 25% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Current HPI: 168.1206
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.00%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $114,900 CTXMLS
• 1995-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,818 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.