642 Royalty Cir NE #12 · Salem, OR 97301

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1998 $114/sqft · 54% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated seller-bring your offers! This well-maintained home is an incredible value and is priced to move! Featuring a spacious layout with 3-beds, 2-bath plus a BONUS office/den room. Kitchen provides ample storage and workspace, all appliances included! Enjoy peace of mind with a brand-new HVAC system installed in 2024. Outdoor offers a fenced yard, two storage sheds and low-maintenance Leaf Guard Gutters. Home is equipped with Ring Camera providing enhanced security. Don't miss out on this opportunity!

Key facts

• Back deck
• Two storage sheds
• Convenient location

Tags

• BONUS OFFICE
• BRAND-NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• LEAF GUARD GUTTERS
• BACK DECK
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $524 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Auburn Elementary School (542 students, 71% FRL); Houck Middle School (949 students, 74% FRL); North Salem High School (2,239 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 53% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.05%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,556
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 54.41%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
663 Royalty Cir NE	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (0%)	4mo	$164,900	$117	91
4730 Auburn Rd NE #43	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-5%)	1mo	$134,900	$101	76
4730 Auburn Rd NE #20	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	4mo	$85,000	$59	72
283 Broadmore Ave NE	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,342 (-4%)	2mo	$60,000	$45	68
4730 Auburn Rd #158	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-8%)	3mo	$61,500	$48	68
857 Hoffman Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-8%)	7mo	$110,000	$85	65
857 Hoffman Rd NE #11	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-8%)	7mo	$110,000	$85	65
1500 NE Gabriela Ct #16	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-4%)	1mo	$98,000	$73	63
4998 Wind Stone Way NE #32	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	5mo	$134,100	$89	60
997 Wind Meadows Way #64	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+8%)	2mo	$134,999	$89	60
1500 Gabriela Ct #20	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-6%)	5mo	$132,000	$100	56
1500 Gabriela Ct NE #27	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+14%)	5mo	$35,500	$22	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,609
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $21,726
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97301

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,001 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,820/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $615	-5% $569	+0% $524	+5% $479	+10% $434
Rent	-10% $366	-5% $445	+0% $524	+5% $603	+10% $682
Rate	-1.0pp $605	-0.5pp $565	base $524	+0.5pp $483	+1.0pp $441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
434 Greencrest St NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1637	$3,900	$2.38	25d	1	0.29mi
412 Lost Lake St NE Salem, OR	4.0	3.0	1662	$2,495	$1.50	25d	1	0.34mi
4485 Monroe Ave NE Salem, OR	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,195	$1.83	45d	1	0.43mi
4833 Thyme Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,545	$1.51	15d	1	0.54mi
102 Greencrest St NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	914	$2,205	$2.41	15d	25	0.68mi
435 Fountain Valley Way NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	939	$1,559	$1.66	22d	5	0.71mi
143 Connecticut Ave SE Unit 145 Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1207	$1,595	$1.32	15d	1	0.73mi
124 Stafford Ln NE Unit 124-203 Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1052	$1,595	$1.52	45d	1	0.77mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4437-206 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	932	$1,525	$1.64	45d	1	0.85mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4435-201 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	888	$1,525	$1.72	25d	1	0.85mi
4836 Tanglewood Ct SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,150	$1.63	25d	1	0.91mi
430 Brittany Way NE Unit 369-421 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	920	$1,400	$1.52	45d	1	0.93mi
295 Colt Ln NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1052	$1,575	$1.50	15d	1	1.01mi
4098 Market St NE Unit MT21 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	25d	1	1.04mi
3750-3762 Amber St NE Unit 3762-107 Salem, OR	2.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	1.04mi
3750-3762 Amber St NE Unit 3758-107 Salem, OR	2.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	25d	1	1.04mi
178 Lancaster Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,495	$1.57	15d	1	1.08mi
1973 45th Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$1,360	$1.30	15d	2	1.08mi
3695 D St NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,650	$1.59	45d	3	1.10mi
4200 Sunnyview Rd NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,445	$1.64	25d	1	1.14mi
4154 Sunnyview Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	806	$1,375	$1.71	15d	6	1.21mi
990 Charter Pl NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1248	$1,895	$1.52	45d	1	1.29mi
4807 Chinook Ct SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1104	$2,200	$1.99	15d	1	1.30mi
3301 D St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,225	$1.44	25d	4	1.34mi
3910-3930 Sunnyview Rd NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,845	$1.42	15d	6	1.35mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,958	$2.03	15d	26	1.35mi
3828 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	15d	1	1.37mi
3822 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	25d	1	1.38mi
4768 El Cedro Loop NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,895	$1.41	45d	1	1.39mi
4776 Buffalo Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1369	$2,150	$1.57	45d	1	1.41mi
1003-1085 Savage Rd NE Unit 1053 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	950	$1,095	$1.15	25d	1	1.47mi
1029 Raffon Ct SE Unit AR7171-3 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	927	$1,700	$1.83	25d	1	1.48mi
3071 D St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	890	$1,195	$1.34	15d	1	1.50mi
3071 D St NE Unit 3097 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	890	$1,195	$1.34	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,900 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,900 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,900 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $159,900 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-02-02
   listed $159,900 Active 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Motivated seller-bring your offers! This well-maintained home is an incredible value and is priced to move! Featuring a spacious layout with 3-beds, 2-bath plus a BONUS office/den room. Kitchen provides ample storage and workspace, all appliances included! Enjoy peace of mind with a brand-new HVAC system installed in 2024. Outdoor offers a fenced yard, two storage sheds and low-maintenance Leaf Guard Gutters. Home is equipped with Ring Camera providing enhanced security. Don't miss out on this opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,820 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,820 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,820
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,921
• − Management: −$1,921
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $3,945
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$947
• After-tax cash flow: $5,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 57,574
• Household income: $60,422
• Rent vs Own: 57.2% rent · 42.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3089.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 19% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -548.17%
• Current HPI: 335.8199
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.70%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $159,900 WVMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,820 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.