Darwin Plan · Apison, TN 37302

$343,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,749 sqft · SingleFamily · 159 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Darwin floor plan is available at Prairie Pass Express in Apison, TN. It's a charming two-story home that offers an open-concept main level with a spacious kitchen, pantry, and island with countertop seating. The kitchen overlooks an expansive living area, a well-lit breakfast nook, and an outdoor patio. The foyer has a powder room for convenience. Moving to the upper level, you'll find a desirable primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and private bathroom. There are also two additional bedrooms, each with their own walk-in closet. An additional bathroom and laundry room complete the upstairs of this beautiful home. * D. R. Horton is an Equal Housing Opportunity Builder.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Walk-in closet
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• BREAKFAST NOOK

🏗️ New construction. The $343,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $380,070.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $344k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-677 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#106 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Apison Elementary School (math 65% / reading 61%, grade B, #47 of 952 statewide, top 5%, 652 students, 0% FRL); Sequoyah High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #273 of 332 statewide, top 84%, 226 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($303k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,719 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.64%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,070
• List price: $343,990
• Delta: -9.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10705 Prairie Lake Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+1%)	2mo	$349,900	$198	86
10696 Prairie Lake Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+1%)	1mo	$325,000	$184	86
10700 Prairie Lake Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,618 (-8%)	2mo	$348,120	$215	79
10712 Prairie Lake Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (+6%)	3mo	$347,500	$188	77
10717 Prairie Lake Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,618 (-8%)	2mo	$325,000	$201	77
10778 Upland Drive Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (+6%)	4mo	$390,980	$211	76
10784 Prairie Lake Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,942 (+11%)	6mo	$380,000	$196	74
10786 Upland Drive Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,991 (+14%)	3mo	$375,000	$188	66
10773 Upland Drive Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,991 (+14%)	4mo	$380,140	$191	66
10765 Upland Drive Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,991 (+14%)	5mo	$391,305	$197	65
10849 Prairie Lake Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,937 (+11%)	7mo	$399,000	$206	65
10746 Upland Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,991 (+14%)	7mo	$383,000	$192	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-104,700
• Equity at exit: $56,670

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-146,582
• Equity at exit: $32,862

Cash invested: $106,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.4 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $357,990 ($200/sqft)
• Median days on market: 159 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37302

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$475 /mo · $5,701/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-677

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,325

Max offer price $282,036

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-415	-5% $-546	+0% $-677	+5% $-809	+10% $-940
Rent	-10% $-872	-5% $-775	+0% $-677	+5% $-580	+10% $-483
Rate	-1.0pp $-486	-0.5pp $-581	base $-677	+0.5pp $-776	+1.0pp $-876

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,018
• Closing costs: $11,402
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3753 Hawks Creek Dr Apison, TN	3.0	2.5	2164	$2,995	$1.38	109d	1	0.87mi
11114 E Brainerd Rd Apison, TN	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	0d	1	0.94mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $343,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: New construction — Plan: DarwinEntry address: 10724 Prairie Lake Dr, Apison TN 37302
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,749

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (standard for Darwin plan)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open floor plan (Darwin plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $343,990 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $343,990 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $343,990 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $343,990 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $343,990 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $343,990 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $343,990 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $343,990 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $343,990 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $343,990 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $343,990 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $343,990 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $343,990 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $343,990 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $343,990 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $343,990 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $343,990 Active 135 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $343,990 Active 134 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $343,990 Active 133 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $343,990 Active 132 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $343,990 Active 131 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $343,990 Active 129 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $343,990 Active 128 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $343,990 Active 127 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $343,990 Active 126 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $343,990 Active 125 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $343,990 Active 124 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $343,990 Active 123 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $343,990 Active 122 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $343,990 Active 121 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $343,990 Active 120 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $343,990 Active 119 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $343,990 Active 118 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $343,990 Active 117 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $343,990 Active 116 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $343,990 Active 115 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $343,990 Active 114 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $343,990 Active 113 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $343,990 Active 112 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $343,990 Active 111 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $343,990 Active 110 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $343,990 Active 109 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $343,990 Active 108 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $343,990 Active 107 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $343,990 Active 104 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $343,990 Active 102 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $343,990 Active 100 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $343,990 Active 98 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $343,990 Active 97 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $343,990 Active 96 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,290
• − Property taxes: −$5,701
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,369
• − Management: −$2,369
• − Depreciation: −$11,057
• Taxable loss: −$15,078
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,619
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,745–$26,235 screening

This charming two-story home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a clean exterior. The home is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some minor updates to the kitchen and bathrooms to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add a modern touch and increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Installing new flooring in the bathrooms — New flooring can make bathrooms more inviting and appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can improve the home's ambiance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Apison Elementary School B TN #47/952 Nat'l #5,998/41,679 Middle East Hamilton Middle School C- TN #24/333 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High East Hamilton High School F TN #39/332 Nat'l #9,567/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Apison

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #10827

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apison, TN
• County: Hamilton · 393,784 people
• City population: 5,253
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 5,253
• Household income: $103,578
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 5% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.96%
• Current HPI: 294.8398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $343,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: New construction — Plan: DarwinEntry address: 10724 Prairie Lake Dr, Apison TN 37302
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,749

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (standard for Darwin plan)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open floor plan (Darwin plan)