15 Beacon Ct · Timberlake, VA 24502

$174,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,323 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1985 $132/sqft · 34% below area Est $245k · 29% under $234/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

15 Beacon Ct. is a 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath home located right in Lynchburg, VA. This home has an updated kitchen, new appliances, updated bathrooms, and new flooring though out the home. It has a spacious finished basement for entertainment. Walking distance to restaurants and grocery store! Come check out this home today!

Key facts

• Contemporary vanity
• Water heater
• Shower installation

Tags

• WATER HEATER
• SHOWER INSTALLATION
• CONTEMPORARY VANITY
• NEWER REFRIGERATOR
• PRIVACY-FENCED DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; HOA fee approximately $234 per month

Exterior

• Home design: Residential condominium; 2 stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: In-ground private pool; Clubhouse; Tennis courts

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Basement laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in basement; Washer included; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-599/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Timberlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, amenities F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Leesville Road Elementary (math 73% / reading 72%, grade A, #267 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 625 students, 74% FRL); Brookville Middle (math 44% / reading 72%, grade B, #174 of 342 statewide, top 51%, 715 students, 74% FRL); Brookville High (math 66% / reading 82%, grade B+, #120 of 319 statewide, top 38%, 971 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 37% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,910 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,344
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -28.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 Deerwood Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,245 (-6%)	17mo	$270,000	$217	57
101 Ridgeline Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (-8%)	11mo	$320,000	$263	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-28,100
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,920
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,549 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $596/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$234
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,612

Max offer price $166,080

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
151 Kitty Hawk Sq Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,450	$0.81	21d	1	0.07mi
121 Colonnade St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	44d	1	0.38mi
211 Meridian St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1815	$2,300	$1.27	13d	1	0.39mi
119 Cornerstone St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,595	$1.18	21d	1	0.39mi
120 Portico St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	44d	1	0.41mi
318 Meridian St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,995	$1.25	44d	1	0.41mi
120 Clubhouse Dr Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$1,175	$1.07	13d	1	0.42mi
419 Rotunda St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,875	$1.34	21d	1	0.42mi
419 Rotunda St #2001 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,875	$1.30	44d	1	0.42mi
105 Capital St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,149	$1.15	13d	14	0.44mi
100 Capstone Dr #303 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,250	$2.19	44d	1	0.44mi
203 Capital St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1143	$1,349	$1.18	13d	20	0.47mi
142 Mesena Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1173	$1,275	$1.09	44d	1	0.47mi
302 Capstone Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	44d	1	0.49mi
28 Oak Haven Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1833	$1,750	$0.95	21d	1	0.55mi
116 Melissa Ln Unit 1 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1490	$1,795	$1.20	21d	1	0.67mi
503 Barrington Way Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.5	1545	$1,795	$1.16	13d	1	0.71mi
104 Tanzalon Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,995	$1.33	13d	1	0.80mi
22 Apala Cir Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,250	$1.61	13d	1	0.84mi
41 Lynette Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,595	$1.28	44d	1	1.03mi
1229 Wood Rd Unit C Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	1	1.10mi
209 Old Graves Mill Rd Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1313	$1,220	$0.93	13d	7	1.39mi
27 Odara Dr Forest, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1285	$1,298	$1.01	13d	1	1.40mi
240 Beverly Hills Cir Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1402	$1,481	$1.06	21d	10	1.42mi
9 Fonda Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	948	$1,138	$1.20	44d	1	1.42mi
16 Duiguid Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	948	$1,138	$1.20	21d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $234 · $2,808/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   status $174,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $174,900 Pending 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $174,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $174,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $174,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $174,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-05-01
    listed $174,900 Active 773-char remark
12. 2026-04-15
    status Active
13. 2026-04-07
    status Pending
14. 2026-03-20
    listed $179,900 Active
15. 2022-03-07
    soldstatus $139,900

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    15 Beacon Ct. is a 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath home located right in Lynchburg, VA. This home has an updated kitchen, new appliances, updated bathrooms, and new flooring though out the home. It has a spacious finished basement for entertainment. Walking distance to restaurants and grocery store! Come check out this home today!

16. 2022-02-05
    listed $139,900

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    15 Beacon Ct. is a 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath home located right in Lynchburg, VA. This home has an updated kitchen, new appliances, updated bathrooms, and new flooring though out the home. It has a spacious finished basement for entertainment. Walking distance to restaurants and grocery store! Come check out this home today!

17. 2006-03-13
    soldstatus $90,900
18. 1998-06-17
    soldstatus $68,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $596 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,434 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$838/yr (+$70/mo · 140.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$596
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,487
• − Management: −$1,487
• − HOA: −$2,808
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$3,548
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$852
• After-tax cash flow: $252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100600
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,915
• Composite: 51.88/100
• National rank: #1656
• State rank: #55 of 131 in VA

Livability — Timberlake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Timberlake, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,306 people
• By 2030: 56,366 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 55,406 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 53,011 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 45,932 · -18.4%
• By 2100: 36,029 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 25.3% · R 73.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+44.1 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+153.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Relisted — LMLS
• 2026-06-05 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $174,900 LMLS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — LMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $179,900 LMLS
• 2022-03-07 Sold (MLS) $139,900 LMLS
• 2022-02-05 Listed $139,900 LMLS
• 2006-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $90,900 Public Records
• 1998-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $68,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $596 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.