456 Whispering Willow Dr · Redwood, OR 97527

$87,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1990 $74/sqft · 12% below area Est $100k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful living in the desirable 55+ Willow Estate II North community. This well-maintained 2-bdrm, 2-bath, 1,188 sq ft home is ideally located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. A covered front deck welcomes you into the open living room, dining area, & kitchen, featuring vaulted ceilings, large windows & skylights that fill the space w/ natural light. The spacious kitchen offers a breakfast bar, ample cabinet space, & a pantry, making it both functional & inviting. New flooring has recently been added throughout! The primary suite features a walk-in closet & an easy access shower. The guest bathroom is accessible from both the main hallway & the laundry room & includes a walk-in bathtub. Separate exterior entrance w/ an ADA ramp leads to the laundry room - washer & dryer included - & connects conveniently to the kitchen. The tandem 2-car covered carport includes a storage shed. Come tour this affordable home & enjoy comfortable, low maintenance living in a welcoming community.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1990
• Listed 100 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 2.6% in Redwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#213 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Grants Pass SD 7 (urban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #66 of 183 in OR (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 223 units permitted in Josephine County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $605 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Josephine County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 104% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $88k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,625 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.33%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,900
• List price: $87,500
• Delta: -12.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2372 Sequoia Ct	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,188 (0%)	3mo	$100,000	$84	82
108 Whispering Willow Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-6%)	4mo	$100,000	$89	80
1284 Willow Ct	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,188 (0%)	16mo	$85,000	$72	74
327 Whispering Willow Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+9%)	5mo	$127,500	$98	72
431 Whispering Willow Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+9%)	10mo	$125,000	$96	70
122 Whispering Willow Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,365 (+15%)	4mo	$99,900	$73	64
1551 Willow Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,224 (+3%)	2mo	$72,000	$59	63
1510 Agape Way	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,136 (-4%)	5mo	$146,000	$129	60
2386 Sasha Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+5%)	11mo	$115,000	$92	58
1504 Agape Way	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,288 (+8%)	6mo	$66,525	$52	58
1450 Willow Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+9%)	16mo	$111,000	$86	47
1505 Agape Way	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+14%)	4mo	$60,000	$44	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $25,311
• Equity at exit: $13,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $73,040
• Equity at exit: $7,565

Cash invested: $24,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97527

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$459
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $487/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $678

Max offer price $87,500

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $669	-5% $644	+0% $619	+5% $594	+10% $570
Rent	-10% $504	-5% $561	+0% $619	+5% $677	+10% $735
Rate	-1.0pp $663	-0.5pp $641	base $619	+0.5pp $597	+1.0pp $573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,875
• Closing costs: $2,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1400 SW Kokanee Ln Unit 1402 Grants Pass, OR	2.0	1.0	962	$1,495	$1.55	44d	1	0.40mi
1654 Kellenbeck Ave Grants Pass, OR	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	44d	1	0.63mi
1783 Medart Ln Unit 1783 Grants Pass, OR	2.0	1.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	44d	1	0.80mi
1754 Sun Glo Dr Grants Pass, OR	2.0	1.0	888	$1,450	$1.63	44d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $87,500 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,500 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,500 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,500 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,500 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $87,500 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $87,500 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $87,500 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,500 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $87,500 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $87,500 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $87,500 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $87,500 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $87,500 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,500 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,500 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,500 Active 82 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $92,500 Active 81 DOM
19. 2026-05-01
    price $92,500 1057-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1057 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful living in the desirable 55+ Willow Estate II North community. This well-maintained 2-bdrm, 2-bath, 1,188 sq ft home is ideally located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. A covered front deck welcomes you into the open living room, dining area, & kitchen, featuring vaulted ceilings, large windows & skylights that fill the space w/ natural light. The spacious kitchen offers a breakfast bar, ample cabinet space, & a pantry, making it both functional & inviting. New flooring has recently been added throughout! The primary suite features a walk-in closet & an easy access shower. The guest bathroom is accessible from both the main hallway & the laundry room & includes a walk-in bathtub. Separate exterior entrance w/ an ADA ramp leads to the laundry room - washer & dryer included - & connects conveniently to the kitchen. The tandem 2-car covered carport includes a storage shed. Come tour this affordable home & enjoy comfortable, low maintenance living in a welcoming community.

20. 2026-04-04
    price $105,000 1057-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1057 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful living in the desirable 55+ Willow Estate II North community. This well-maintained 2-bdrm, 2-bath, 1,188 sq ft home is ideally located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. A covered front deck welcomes you into the open living room, dining area, & kitchen, featuring vaulted ceilings, large windows & skylights that fill the space w/ natural light. The spacious kitchen offers a breakfast bar, ample cabinet space, & a pantry, making it both functional & inviting. New flooring has recently been added throughout! The primary suite features a walk-in closet & an easy access shower. The guest bathroom is accessible from both the main hallway & the laundry room & includes a walk-in bathtub. Separate exterior entrance w/ an ADA ramp leads to the laundry room - washer & dryer included - & connects conveniently to the kitchen. The tandem 2-car covered carport includes a storage shed. Come tour this affordable home & enjoy comfortable, low maintenance living in a welcoming community.

21. 2026-03-10
    status Active 1057-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1057 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful living in the desirable 55+ Willow Estate II North community. This well-maintained 2-bdrm, 2-bath, 1,188 sq ft home is ideally located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. A covered front deck welcomes you into the open living room, dining area, & kitchen, featuring vaulted ceilings, large windows & skylights that fill the space w/ natural light. The spacious kitchen offers a breakfast bar, ample cabinet space, & a pantry, making it both functional & inviting. New flooring has recently been added throughout! The primary suite features a walk-in closet & an easy access shower. The guest bathroom is accessible from both the main hallway & the laundry room & includes a walk-in bathtub. Separate exterior entrance w/ an ADA ramp leads to the laundry room - washer & dryer included - & connects conveniently to the kitchen. The tandem 2-car covered carport includes a storage shed. Come tour this affordable home & enjoy comfortable, low maintenance living in a welcoming community.

22. 2026-01-29
    historical 1057-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1057 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful living in the desirable 55+ Willow Estate II North community. This well-maintained 2-bdrm, 2-bath, 1,188 sq ft home is ideally located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. A covered front deck welcomes you into the open living room, dining area, & kitchen, featuring vaulted ceilings, large windows & skylights that fill the space w/ natural light. The spacious kitchen offers a breakfast bar, ample cabinet space, & a pantry, making it both functional & inviting. New flooring has recently been added throughout! The primary suite features a walk-in closet & an easy access shower. The guest bathroom is accessible from both the main hallway & the laundry room & includes a walk-in bathtub. Separate exterior entrance w/ an ADA ramp leads to the laundry room - washer & dryer included - & connects conveniently to the kitchen. The tandem 2-car covered carport includes a storage shed. Come tour this affordable home & enjoy comfortable, low maintenance living in a welcoming community.

23. 2020-04-25
    historical
24. 2016-05-24
    soldstatus $42,900
25. 2016-01-29
    listed $42,900
26. 2015-12-02
    historical
27. 2015-11-06
    listed $47,500
28. 2015-07-10
    listed $48,900
29. 2005-12-23
    soldstatus $60,000
30. 2005-09-23
    listed $59,900
31. 1991-04-01
    soldstatus $41,220

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $487 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $849 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$362/yr (+$30/mo · 74.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,546
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,901
• − Property taxes: −$487
• − Insurance: −$438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,404
• − Management: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$2,545
• Taxable income: $6,367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,528
• After-tax cash flow: $5,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grants Pass SD 7
• NCES district ID: 4105910
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,433
• Composite: 41.5/100
• National rank: #7281
• State rank: #66 of 183 in OR

Livability — Redwood

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #14443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redwood, OR
• County: Josephine County · 73,366 people
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• Population (ZIP): 37,330
• Household income: $66,975
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Josephine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,883 people
• By 2030: 89,055 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 90,396 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 90,801 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 89,880 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 81,252 · -7.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Josephine

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.1) · D 34.2% · R 63.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.2pp · 2024: -29.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.1 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.09%
• Current HPI: 318.0477
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.05%
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+124.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $92,500 MLSCO
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $105,000 MLSCO
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2016-05-24 Sold (MLS) $42,900 MLSCO
• 2016-01-29 Listed $42,900 MLSCO
• 2015-12-02 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2015-11-06 Listed $47,500 MLSCO
• 2015-07-10 Listed $48,900 MLSCO
• 2005-12-23 Sold (MLS) $60,000 RMLS
• 2005-09-23 Listed $59,900 RMLS
• 1991-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,220 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $487 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.