10 Saint Tropez Ct · Holiday City South, NJ 08757

$249,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 757 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1985 4,791 sqft lot Est $255k · at est. $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this Newport model situated in Holiday City South. A cute two bedroom one bath little doll house. Entering this home you walk into this cozy living room dining room combination. The charming renovated kitchen sits right next to the dining room that gives direct access to the garage. The back den/bedroom is bright with sliders that brings you to a fenced back patio.

Key facts

• Renovated kitchen
• Fenced back patio
• 4,791 sq ft lot

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• FENCED BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Holiday City South; Quarterly association fee; Association fee covers trash, lawn maintenance, pool, snow removal; Community amenities include community room, clubhouse, pool, bocci

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Model: Newport
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central air
• Interior features: Window treatments; Gas cooking; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.9% in Holiday City South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#302 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Regional Middle School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #279 of 431 statewide, top 66%, 716 students, 37% FRL); Central Regional High School (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #312 of 399 statewide, top 79%, 1,606 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 509 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,328/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $250k implies a 525% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,812 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.81%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,109
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
148 San Carlos St	0.37mi	2/1.0	757 (0%)	1mo	$255,000	$337	82
937 Edgebrook Dr N	0.51mi	1/1.0 (-1)	816 (+8%)	4mo	$170,000	$208	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-30,039
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-12,685
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,328 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,466/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,120

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $306	-5% $235	+0% $164	+5% $93	+10% $23
Rent	-10% $-20	-5% $72	+0% $164	+5% $256	+10% $348
Rate	-1.0pp $290	-0.5pp $228	base $164	+0.5pp $99	+1.0pp $33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 York St Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1105	$2,200	$1.99	0d	1	0.63mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 384-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $249,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,466 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,344 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,878/yr (+$157/mo · 76.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,466
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,235
• − Management: −$2,235
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$2,176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$522
• After-tax cash flow: $2,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City South

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #302
• US rank: #9268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City South, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+383.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $249,900 MOMLS
• 1989-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1985-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,690 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,466 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.