20911 Water Point Trl · Atascocita, TX 77346

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,013 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1995 6,947 sqft lot $139/sqft · 10% below area Est $309k · 10% under · waterfront $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

SPACIOUS ONE-STORY BRICK HOME in SOUGHT-AFTER KINGS RIVER VILLAGE with NEW ROOF (2025). 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, SPLIT PLAN LAYOUT, OFFICE/FLEX SPACE with French doors, FORMAL DINING, and 10’ ceilings. UPDATED KITCHEN (2020) with granite counters and subway tile backsplash; REFRIGERATOR STAYS. New water heater (2026), gas log fireplace, built-ins in the den, and LARGE WINDOWS THROUGHOUT offering abundant natural light. Fenced backyard with sprinkler system and 2-car garage. Never flooded. Enjoy the private NEIGHBORHOOD LAKEFRONT PARK with picnic areas, kayaking, fishing, and walking trails. Zoned to top Kingwood schools and near Kingwood Country Club and Atascocita Golf Club. Conveniently

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Fenced backyard
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FENCED BACKYARD
• NEIGHBORHOOD LAKEFRONT PARK
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association (Kings River Vlg + Kings River Trail); Annual association fee: $600; Association covers common areas and recreation facilities; Community pool; Golf; Association amenities: basketball court, boat ramp, sport court, picnic area, playground, pickleball, park, tennis courts, trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1995
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fully fenced yard; Sprinkler/irrigation; Tennis court(s); Pond on lot; Near golf course; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 10); Bedrooms possible: 3
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Crown molding; Double vanity; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Pots & pan drawers; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Has fireplace (gas log and wood burning)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-332 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greentree El (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C-, #720 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 674 students, 23% FRL); Creekwood Middle (math 49% / reading 50%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 1,149 students, 21% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $279k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,399 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,309
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -9.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20923 Lake Park Trl Trl	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,056 (+2%)	1mo	$285,000	$139	83
20507 Delta Wood Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0	2,164 (+8%)	0mo	$320,000	$148	71
19835 Emerald Bend Way	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,989 (-1%)	1mo	$264,390	$133	63
19827 Emerald Bend Way	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,989 (-1%)	2mo	$298,840	$150	63
19834 Emerald Bend Way	0.61mi	3/2.5	2,107 (+5%)	2mo	$304,490	$145	60
19918 Emerald Bend Way	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,989 (-1%)	1mo	$307,740	$155	60
6743 Pacific Crest Ct	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,277 (+13%)	1mo	$309,900	$136	58
19922 Big Timber Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,035 (+1%)	1mo	$249,900	$123	57
19831 Emerald Bend Way	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-14%)	2mo	$284,140	$165	46
19839 Emerald Bend Way	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-14%)	2mo	$268,140	$155	45
20215 Glen Burn Ct	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,209 (+10%)	0mo	$299,900	$136	43
20211 Big Timber Ct	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,721 (-14%)	0mo	$204,000	$119	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-47,981
• Equity at exit: $67,962

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-70,496
• Equity at exit: $71,889

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 682
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,321 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$536 /mo · $6,432/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,741

Max offer price $220,399

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-174	-5% $-253	+0% $-332	+5% $-411	+10% $-490
Rent	-10% $-515	-5% $-423	+0% $-332	+5% $-240	+10% $-148
Rate	-1.0pp $-191	-0.5pp $-261	base $-332	+0.5pp $-404	+1.0pp $-478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	23d	1	0.08mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	45d	1	0.12mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	23d	1	0.19mi
6731 Auburn Oak Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2433	$2,345	$0.96	23d	1	0.27mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	45d	1	0.40mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	0d	14	0.51mi
19706 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2753	$2,550	$0.93	26d	1	0.58mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	45d	1	0.92mi
19902 Burle Oak Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$1,699	$1.11	45d	1	0.95mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	0d	1	0.96mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	45d	1	0.96mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	7d	1	1.11mi
1721 Dominica Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	3.0	2870	$2,450	$0.85	45d	1	1.16mi
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	45d	1	1.33mi
20502 Spoonwood Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2302	$1,975	$0.86	45d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Pending 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Pending 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $279,000 Pending 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $279,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-05-12
    listed $279,000 Active 931-char remark
11. 2004-07-19
    soldstatus
12. 2004-06-08
    historical
13. 2004-03-28
    listed $144,500
14. 1998-08-05
    soldstatus
15. 1998-07-01
    soldstatus $111,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,432 · $536/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,432 · $536/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$6,432
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,228
• − Management: −$2,228
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$8,776
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,106
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+149.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2004-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-06-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-03-28 Listed $144,500 HARMLS
• 1998-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $111,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,432 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.