5319 S Lakeview Lot : 52-53 · West Branch, MI 48661

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1954 Fair condition 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COZY 2 BEDROOM CABIN just across from nice common area at Frost Lake. Home needs some work but you could fix it up with your own touches the way you like for a perfect getaway. Home is also just across from the common dock for swimming and fishing or you could relax and enjoy the lakefront views from your front door!

Key facts

• Front deck
• Frost lake access
• Private dock

Tags

• FROST LAKE ACCESS
• PRIVATE DOCK
• SIDE DECK
• FRONT DECK
• SWIMMING
• FISHING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Electric heating fuel and electric water heater; Internet DSL available
• Home design: Single-story residential structure (1 story); Lot identified as Lot 52-53; Facing water frontage on Frost Lake; Built in 1954
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Piers foundation; Built in 1954
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Porch; Shed; Subdivision lot, cleared; On waterfront with shared access and water view; Dock/pier facility; Interior lake frontage with sandy bottom

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms (each about 8 x 8); First-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Window treatments; Porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.6% in West Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#331 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• West Branch-Rose City Area Schools (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #306 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Ogemaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ogemaw County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $90k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $88,551 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.87%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $6,647
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $33,155
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48661

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $395	-5% $364	+0% $333	+5% $302	+10% $271
Rent	-10% $237	-5% $285	+0% $333	+5% $381	+10% $428
Rate	-1.0pp $378	-0.5pp $356	base $333	+0.5pp $310	+1.0pp $286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 457-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $89,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,724
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$654
• After-tax cash flow: $3,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen, bathroom, exterior, and flooring. With updates, it could become a cozy and attractive vacation home.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen appliances — need replacement for functionality
• Major bathroom fixtures — need replacement for functionality
• Major exterior siding — repair or replace for structural integrity
• Major flooring — replace worn carpet for comfort and appearance
• Major interior paint — repaint for fresh look and improved value

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both replace flooring — improves comfort and value
• Both update kitchen appliances — enhances functionality and value
• Both update bathroom fixtures — enhances functionality and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen appliances · need replacement for functionality	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · need replacement for functionality	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · repair or replace for structural integrity	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · replace worn carpet for comfort and appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · repaint for fresh look and improved value	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace flooring — improves comfort and value ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — enhances functionality and value ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — enhances functionality and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Branch-Rose City Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2635850
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,145
• Composite: 29.15/100
• National rank: #6580
• State rank: #306 of 540 in MI

Livability — West Branch

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #8152

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,744

Population outlook (Ogemaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,373 people
• By 2030: 18,348 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 16,176 · -16.5%
• By 2050: 14,294 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 11,280 · -41.8%
• By 2100: 8,942 · -53.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ogemaw

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.0) · D 28.4% · R 70.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.0 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+6.2 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.99%
• Current HPI: 253.6665
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+83.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-14 Sold (MLS) $49,200 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-07-17 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-06-29 Listed $49,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS