163 El Pajaro · Thousand Oaks, CA 91320

$249,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 17 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition 1,152 sqft lot Est $329k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Surrounded by beautiful mountains, this 1976 Hillcrest is move-in ready, with light paneling and light painted walls throughout. Other features include: Lots of cabinets, easy-to-maintain front & rear yards, a large eat-in island in kitchen, two bedrooms, two full bathrooms, dining area with built in cabinets, & an open floorplan. New oven, refrigerator, A/C and heater, & sinks. The front steps lead to a covered porch. This home is approximately 1152 square feet, with a covered carport & shed. Space rent is an estimate only.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Indoor laundry area
• Updated windows

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• COVERED CARPORT PARKING
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Location coordinates available; Directions: use GPS
• Financial info: Land lease (annual): $13,830.96 (seller-provided); Rent includes trash, pool, and water
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community features: Foothills; Park name: Vallecito Mobil Home Park; Manager approval required; Pets allowed: contact manager

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 2 parking spaces; 2 carport spaces; Located in Vallecito Mobil Home Park
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Standard electric; Natural gas connected; Public/district water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home (Hillcrest model, 12' x 48'); Double-wide body type; Turnkey condition; Faces west; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl construction; Composition roof; Vinyl skirt; Number of sheds: 1; Mobile home remains on site; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Community pool; Shed; Landscaped; Has view; Private paved road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Water heater unit; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Double oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub and shower-in-tub
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Ground-level entry with steps; One level; Double-pane windows; Gated community; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $245k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 2.8% in Thousand Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#226 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Conejo Valley Unified (urban): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #59 of 517 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 145 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $249k implies a 266% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,265 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.47%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $329,472
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 La Lomita #3	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	3mo	$255,000	$213	81
20 La Encina	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	16mo	$330,000	$286	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $25,725
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $82,298
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91320

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$774
• Net cashflow: $1,190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,362	-5% $1,276	+0% $1,190	+5% $1,104	+10% $1,017
Rent	-10% $899	-5% $1,044	+0% $1,190	+5% $1,335	+10% $1,481
Rate	-1.0pp $1,315	-0.5pp $1,253	base $1,190	+0.5pp $1,125	+1.0pp $1,059

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1194 Vista Canyon Ln Newbury Park, CA	3.0	3.0	1384	$3,800	$2.75	45d	1	0.16mi
1194 Vista Conyon #17 Newbury Park, CA	3.0	2.5	1384	$3,800	$2.75	25d	1	0.16mi
3444 Melvin Ct Newbury Park, CA	3.0	2.0	1308	$3,600	$2.75	11d	1	0.84mi
198 San Vincente Cir Newbury Park, CA	2.0	2.0	1334	$3,500	$2.62	45d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $249,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,537
• − Management: −$3,537
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $10,963
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,631
• After-tax cash flow: $11,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Painting, updating cabinets, and replacing worn fixtures would significantly enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Aesthetic upgrade needed
• Minor Bathtubs and sinks — Worn appearance
• Moderate Exterior siding — Faded color
• Minor Carpeted flooring — Worn appearance
• Minor Paint on interior walls — Faded appearance
• Minor Windows — Clean but may need replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replacing worn bathtubs and sinks — Improves functionality and appearance
• Both Re-siding exterior — Enhances curb appeal and durability
• Both Upgrading carpeting — Enhances comfort and appearance
• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances appearance and can hide wear
• Both Replacing windows — Improves energy efficiency and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Aesthetic upgrade needed	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathtubs and sinks · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Faded color	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Carpeted flooring · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint on interior walls · Faded appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Windows · Clean but may need replacement	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$5,500–30,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replacing worn bathtubs and sinks — Improves functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Re-siding exterior — Enhances curb appeal and durability ↑
• Both Upgrading carpeting — Enhances comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances appearance and can hide wear ↑
• Both Replacing windows — Improves energy efficiency and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conejo Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609640
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $100,413
• Composite: 59.57/100
• National rank: #914
• State rank: #59 of 517 in CA

Livability — Thousand Oaks

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #7364

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thousand Oaks, CA
• County: Ventura County · 829,955 people
• City population: 121,704
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,472
• Household income: $148,991
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 756.0

Population outlook (Ventura County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 895,754 people
• By 2030: 912,134 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 931,454 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 934,609 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 924,899 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 864,712 · -3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 16% Asian 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ventura

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 56.1% · R 41.0% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+21.1 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+5.3 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -917.39%
• Current HPI: 283.6467
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+317.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2011-10-26 Sold (MLS) $68,000 CSMAR
• 2011-07-25 Listed $59,700 CSMAR