8916 Lakeside Dr · Pinebrook, TX 77363

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 528 Days on market

Built 2017 7,470 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your future home! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property is the perfect blend of comfort and modern living. With a spacious layout, an inviting design, and an attached 2-car garage, this home is ready for families or anyone seeking a cozy retreat. The well-maintained yard offers outdoor space for relaxation or gatherings, while the thoughtfully designed interior ensures a seamless living experience. Whether you're a first-time buyer, upgrading to your dream home, or seeking a great investment opportunity, this property has everything you need. Don’t miss the chance to make it yours—schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Well maintained yard
• 7,470 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED YARD
• THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED INTERIOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Navasota ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #600 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 528 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 528 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.49%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $36,589
• Equity at exit: $62,950

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $102,547
• Equity at exit: $97,014

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77363

• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,507 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,054/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,114

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 528 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 527 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 526 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 525 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 523 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 519 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 518 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 517 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $140,000 Active 514 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 513 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 512 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 511 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 510 DOM
14. 2026-02-16
    price $140,000 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Welcome to your future home! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property is the perfect blend of comfort and modern living. With a spacious layout, an inviting design, and an attached 2-car garage, this home is ready for families or anyone seeking a cozy retreat. The well-maintained yard offers outdoor space for relaxation or gatherings, while the thoughtfully designed interior ensures a seamless living experience. Whether you're a first-time buyer, upgrading to your dream home, or seeking a great investment opportunity, this property has everything you need. Don’t miss the chance to make it yours—schedule your tour today!

15. 2025-01-06
    listed $153,000 Active 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Welcome to your future home! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property is the perfect blend of comfort and modern living. With a spacious layout, an inviting design, and an attached 2-car garage, this home is ready for families or anyone seeking a cozy retreat. The well-maintained yard offers outdoor space for relaxation or gatherings, while the thoughtfully designed interior ensures a seamless living experience. Whether you're a first-time buyer, upgrading to your dream home, or seeking a great investment opportunity, this property has everything you need. Don’t miss the chance to make it yours—schedule your tour today!

16. 2024-11-02
    historical
17. 2024-10-02
    historical $1,450
18. 2024-09-24
    price $1,450
19. 2024-08-22
    price $165,000
20. 2024-06-09
    listed $1,650
21. 2024-04-29
    price $145,000
22. 2024-04-25
    price $150,000
23. 2024-04-04
    price $165,000
24. 2024-03-25
    price $155,000
25. 2024-03-14
    price $175,000
26. 2023-11-01
    listed $210,000 Active
27. 2022-03-04
    soldstatus
28. 2022-03-03
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2022-01-27
    status Pending
30. 2021-12-16
    listed $90,000 Active
31. 2019-11-26
    soldstatus
32. 2010-03-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,508/yr (+$126/mo · 143.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,054
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,447
• − Management: −$1,447
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$365
• After-tax cash flow: $3,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navasota ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832190
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,326
• Composite: 26.5/100
• National rank: #7205
• State rank: #600 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinebrook

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinebrook, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,246

Population outlook (Grimes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,910 people
• By 2030: 29,539 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 30,648 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 31,698 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 34,351 · +18.8%
• By 2100: 33,565 · +16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grimes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.3) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -60.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+44.2 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+55.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listed $153,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Rental Removed $1,450 HARMLS
• 2024-09-24 Price Changed $1,450 HARMLS
• 2024-08-22 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-09 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2024-04-29 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-25 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-04 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-14 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-01 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2022-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-01-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-12-16 Listed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2019-11-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,054 · +24.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.