1440 E Washington St · Paris, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 110°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 20 days/yr
Wind risk 4/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 22.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Schools +3.0/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$40,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Charming In-Town Rental with Mature Trees Paris, TX This inviting rental home is located within the city limits of Paris, TX, offering convenient access to local restaurants, shopping, and everyday amenities. Nestled among mature shade trees, the property provides a peaceful setting while still being close to everything town has to offer. The home features a cozy layout with comfortable living space and a welcoming front porch, perfect for enjoying the quiet surroundings. With its central location and classic charm, this property is well-suited for tenants looking for convenience, affordability, and an established neighborhood feel.
Key facts
- Central location
- 0.27 acre lot
- 2 parking spots
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Lot is 0.27 acres; Single building with 1 unit; Parcel number 20733
- Financial info: Gross annual income and expenses not reported; Operate as residential income; investor details not provided
- HOA & community: No association
Exterior
- Parking: 2 parking spaces; No special parking features
- Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available
- Home design: Multi-family residential income property; Single story
- Construction: Board & batten siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Originally built (preowned)
- Exterior features: Asphalt on property; City water available; City sewer available; Electricity available
Interior
- Flooring: Other flooring
- Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
- Interior features: One-level layout; Other interior features
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a ?-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
- Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 22.8% vs local median 3.6% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 61/100 on livability (#984 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
- Paris ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #521 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Justiss El (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 552 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 70% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.55% ✓
- Cap rate
- 22.82%
- Cash-on-cash
- 59.03%
- DSCR
- 3.63
- GRM
- 3.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $93,600
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1304 Margaret St | 0.44mi | 2/1.0 | 936 (0%) | 3mo | $77,500 | $83 | 77 |
| 1140 12th St SE | 0.23mi | 2/1.0 | 890 (-5%) | 7mo | $89,900 | $101 | 75 |
| 630 9th St SE | 0.39mi | 2/1.0 | 952 (+2%) | 9mo | $39,900 | $42 | 71 |
| 1870 Cedar St | 0.30mi | 3/1.0 | 935 (-0%) | 19mo | $49,900 | $53 | 70 |
| 840 12th St SE | 0.18mi | 2/1.0 | 988 (+6%) | 16mo | $96,500 | $98 | 69 |
| 825 Cedar St | 0.39mi | 3/1.0 | 984 (+5%) | 6mo | $52,500 | $53 | 68 |
| 1830 Cedar St | 0.25mi | 2/1.0 | 895 (-4%) | 22mo | $89,900 | $100 | 63 |
| 225 16th St SE | 0.43mi | 3/1.0 | 974 (+4%) | 14mo | $119,000 | $122 | 62 |
| 217 19th St SE | 0.50mi | 2/1.0 | 1,010 (+8%) | 3mo | $154,900 | $153 | 61 |
| 1110 SE 17th St SE | 0.18mi | 3/2.0 | 999 (+7%) | 22mo | $167,000 | $167 | 58 |
| 927 5th St SE | 0.62mi | 2/1.0 | 960 (+3%) | 22mo | $90,000 | $94 | 48 |
| 120 10th NE | 0.67mi | 2/2.0 | 800 (-14%) | 6mo | $149,900 | $187 | 36 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 57.7%
- Equity multiple
- 3.55×
- Total profit
- $28,612
- Equity at exit
- $5,964
- IRR
- 62.5%
- Equity multiple
- 7.26×
- Total profit
- $70,111
- Equity at exit
- $3,458
Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 75460
- Active inventory
- 274
- Price-to-rent
- 3.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,020 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$210
- Tax from tax record
- −$29 /mo · $342/yr
- Insurance
- −$17
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$214
- Net cashflow
- $551
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $10,000
- Closing costs
- $1,200
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 5 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 649 E Price St Paris, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,100 | $1.22 | 43d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 60 W Washington St Apt 101 Paris, TX | 1.0 | 1.0 | 600 | $750 | $1.25 | 43d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 132 7th St SW Paris, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $900 | $1.12 | 43d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 3215 Clarksville St Paris, TX | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 895 | $1,395 | $1.56 | 43d | 1 | 1.47mi |
| 1432 Fitzhugh Ave Paris, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 600 | $900 | $1.50 | 43d | 1 | 1.49mi |
Listing history 17 events
-
2026-06-19days on market $40,000 Active 189 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $40,000 Active 188 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $40,000 Active 187 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $40,000 Active 186 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $40,000 Active 185 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $40,000 Active 183 DOM
-
2026-06-12days on market $40,000 Active 182 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $40,000 Active 179 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $40,000 Active 178 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $40,000 Active 177 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $40,000 Active 173 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $40,000 Active 172 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $40,000 Active 171 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $40,000 Active 170 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $40,000 Active 169 DOM
-
2025-12-12$40,000 Active
-
2022-12-07soldstatus
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $342 · $29/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $732 · $61/mo
- Expected delta
- +$390/yr (+$32/mo · 114.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $12,242
- − Mortgage interest
- −$2,241
- − Property taxes
- −$342
- − Insurance
- −$200
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$979
- − Management
- −$979
- − Depreciation
- −$1,164
- Taxable income
- $6,337
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,521
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,091/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Paris ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4834290
- Math proficiency
- 36% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 37% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $31,515
- Composite
- 29.83/100
- National rank
- #6419
- State rank
- #521 of 826 in TX
Livability — Paris
- Score
- 61/100
- State rank
- #984
- US rank
- #17535
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Paris, TX
- County
- Lamar County · 23,426 people
- City population
- 23,426
- Metro
- Paris, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 23,426
- Household income
- $46,473
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1355.0
Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 48,319 people
- By 2030
- 47,160 · -2.4%
- By 2040
- 44,621 · -7.7%
- By 2050
- 42,024 · -13.0%
- By 2075
- 36,577 · -24.3%
- By 2100
- 30,580 · -36.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 58% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 12%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 92% English-only · Spanish 7%
Political lean MEDSL · Lamar
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -201.50%
- Current HPI
- 145.3511
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Paris, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
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| Technology | 5 | $198B |
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| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
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| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
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| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
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Price history
2 events — show timeline
- 2025-12-12 Listed $40,000 NTREIS
- 2022-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
Property tax history
-2.1%/yrLatest (2025): $342 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…