10508 County Road 904 · Princeton, TX 75407

$110,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Land public records · 334 Days on market

Built 1989 Poor condition 9,148 sqft lot $196/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW LOWER PRICE! Walking distance to Lake Lavon. Perfect starter property one block from the lake. Located in the established Lake Lavon Community of Shamrock Park. Ready for your vision. 1 bedroom 1 bath home in need of remodeling on nearly a quarter acre. Priced to sell quickly. Don't miss it. Buyer and buyers agent to verify all relevant information. No guaranty expressed herein.

Key facts

• Shamrock park
• Lake lavon community
• 9,148 sq ft lot

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO LAKE LAVON
• LAKE LAVON COMMUNITY
• SHAMROCK PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $110k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Godwin El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 587 students, 65% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1749 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 334 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 334 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.64%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,297
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -58.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4290 County Road 893	1.64mi	1/1.0	576 (+3%)	54mo	$229,000	$398	40
11292 County Road 491	1.71mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (+7%)	55mo	$399,900	$667	28
125 Sorrell St	1.17mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (+29%)	16mo	$295,000	$410	22
9152 County Road 449	1.54mi	1/1.0	480 (-14%)	33mo	$149,900	$312	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,257
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $17,885
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1749
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,298 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $327/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $823

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $438	-5% $407	+0% $376	+5% $345	+10% $314
Rent	-10% $273	-5% $325	+0% $376	+5% $427	+10% $478
Rate	-1.0pp $431	-0.5pp $404	base $376	+0.5pp $347	+1.0pp $318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 334 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $110,000 Active 332 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $110,000 Active 331 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $110,000 Active 330 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $110,000 Active 329 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $110,000 Active 326 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $110,000 Active 325 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $110,000 Active 324 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $110,000 Active 323 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $110,000 Active 321 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $110,000 Active 319 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $110,000 Active 318 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $110,000 Active 317 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $110,000 Active 316 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $110,000 Active 315 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $110,000 Active 313 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $110,000 Active 312 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $110,000 Active 311 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $110,000 Active 310 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $110,000 Active 309 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $110,000 Active 308 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $110,000 Active 307 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $110,000 Active 306 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $110,000 Active 305 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $110,000 Active 304 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 302 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $110,000 Active 301 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $110,000 Active 300 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 299 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 298 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 297 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 296 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 295 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $110,000 Active 294 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $110,000 Active 293 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $110,000 Active 292 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $110,000 Active 291 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $110,000 Active 289 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $110,000 Active 287 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $110,000 Active 286 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $110,000 Active 283 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $110,000 Active 282 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $110,000 Active 281 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $110,000 Active 280 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $110,000 Active 278 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $110,000 Active 277 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $110,000 Active 274 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 273 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 272 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 269 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $327 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,686/yr (+$141/mo · 515.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$327
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,246
• − Management: −$1,246
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $2,849
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$684
• After-tax cash flow: $3,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $28,000–$50,400 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof and exterior painting, to become move-in ready. Improvements will significantly enhance its value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $30,000–$90,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — Significant damage to the roof structure is visible.
• Major Windows (windows) — Windows appear to be broken or missing, indicating severe damage.
• Major Exterior (exterior) — The exterior of the house is in a state of disrepair, with visible damage and missing components.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Exposed framing and missing shingles indicate significant damage
• Major siding — Weathered siding with visible damage
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and debris indicate neglect

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both repair roof — A new roof will prevent further water damage and improve the home's value ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Godwin El F TX #2,149/4,322 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Clark Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Princeton H S C- TX #437/1,632 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $150,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $327 · +16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.