132 Mayfair Rd · Shamokin, PA 17860

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Other · 98 Days on market

Built 1940 0.75 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this charming Paxinos home featuring a reliable, near-new oil furnace and efficient hot water radiator heating. The interior offers a blend of classic charm and thoughtful updates, including a handicap accessible railing. Outdoors, find a convenient gravel parking pad and a functional lot. The spacious basement is largely framed and partitioned, offering a head start for those looking to expand their living space or create a custom workshop. Sale includes original lot and additional lot totaling around 3/4 acre.

Key facts

• Gravel parking pad
• Oil furnace
• Spacious basement

Tags

• OIL FURNACE
• HOT WATER RADIATOR HEATING
• HANDICAP ACCESSIBLE RAILING
• GRAVEL PARKING PAD
• SPACIOUS BASEMENT
• FRAMED AND PARTITIONED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 11.4% in Shamokin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#887 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, commute F, employment F.
• Shamokin Area SD (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #450 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $112,582 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.63%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $18,979
• Equity at exit: $51,253

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $61,376
• Equity at exit: $75,364

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17860

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,126 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $569/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $955

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $124,900 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $124,900 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $124,900 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,900 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $124,900 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-05-14
   status Active 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Discover this charming Paxinos home featuring a reliable, near-new oil furnace and efficient hot water radiator heating. The interior offers a blend of classic charm and thoughtful updates, including a handicap accessible railing. Outdoors, find a convenient gravel parking pad and a functional lot. The spacious basement is largely framed and partitioned, offering a head start for those looking to expand their living space or create a custom workshop. Sale includes original lot and additional lot totaling around 3/4 acre.

9. 2026-04-14
   status Pending 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Discover this charming Paxinos home featuring a reliable, near-new oil furnace and efficient hot water radiator heating. The interior offers a blend of classic charm and thoughtful updates, including a handicap accessible railing. Outdoors, find a convenient gravel parking pad and a functional lot. The spacious basement is largely framed and partitioned, offering a head start for those looking to expand their living space or create a custom workshop. Sale includes original lot and additional lot totaling around 3/4 acre.

10. 2026-02-26
    price $124,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Discover this charming Paxinos home featuring a reliable, near-new oil furnace and efficient hot water radiator heating. The interior offers a blend of classic charm and thoughtful updates, including a handicap accessible railing. Outdoors, find a convenient gravel parking pad and a functional lot. The spacious basement is largely framed and partitioned, offering a head start for those looking to expand their living space or create a custom workshop. Sale includes original lot and additional lot totaling around 3/4 acre.

11. 2026-01-31
    listed $134,900 Active 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Discover this charming Paxinos home featuring a reliable, near-new oil furnace and efficient hot water radiator heating. The interior offers a blend of classic charm and thoughtful updates, including a handicap accessible railing. Outdoors, find a convenient gravel parking pad and a functional lot. The spacious basement is largely framed and partitioned, offering a head start for those looking to expand their living space or create a custom workshop. Sale includes original lot and additional lot totaling around 3/4 acre.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,271 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$702/yr (+$59/mo · 123.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$569
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,081
• − Management: −$1,081
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$475
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$114
• After-tax cash flow: $1,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shamokin Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4221240
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $35,380
• Composite: 24.31/100
• National rank: #7709
• State rank: #450 of 539 in PA

Livability — Shamokin

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #9448

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,808
• Population (ZIP): 2,605

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Subsaharan African 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Current HPI: 107.4986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $124,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $134,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $569 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.