509 N 21st Ave Ave W · Duluth, MN 55806

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1909 2,178 sqft lot Est $179k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A spacious & well maintained home up on the hill w/ a bay & panoramic view from the second story deck. The kitchen has been updated- cabinets, sink, breakfast bar and a Jenn-Aire grill/rotisserie. All of the bedrooms are nice size w/ good size closets. Th

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Newer roof
• Central a/c

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• CENTRAL A/C
• FENCED IN BACK YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Single-story
• Construction: Stone foundation; Built as a residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 33 x 75

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood window frames; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $740 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Duluth Public School District (urban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 301 in MN (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,943/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 506% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $120k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.41%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,752
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2229 W 7th St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,209 (+3%)	3mo	$177,500	$147	83
517 N 22nd Ave Ave W	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+6%)	1mo	$131,000	$105	81
314 N 19th Ave W	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,208 (+3%)	9mo	$182,000	$151	77
1721 W 2nd St	0.38mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,164 (-1%)	12mo	$230,000	$198	64
2203 W 2nd St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,326 (+13%)	6mo	$150,000	$113	63
2326 W 2nd St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,352 (+15%)	0mo	$180,000	$133	59
520 Winnipeg Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,121 (-5%)	6mo	$190,000	$169	59
2208 W 8th St	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,348 (+15%)	0mo	$205,000	$152	57
2629 W 2nd St	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,292 (+10%)	0mo	$110,000	$85	56
2723 W 4th St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+6%)	12mo	$230,000	$184	48
2626 W 5th St	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,336 (+14%)	11mo	$209,000	$156	43
518 Winnipeg Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,047 (-11%)	11mo	$175,000	$167	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $27,664
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $84,774
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55806

• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,398/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $740

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,007

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2011 W Superior St Duluth, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	670	$1,844	$2.75	13d	12	0.34mi
1302 W 1st St Apt 1 Duluth, MN	2.0	1.0	942	$1,275	$1.35	43d	1	0.76mi
1302 W 1st St Apt 2 Duluth, MN	2.0	1.0	942	$1,300	$1.38	43d	1	0.76mi
1125 Glen Place Dr Unit A05 Duluth, MN	2.0	1.0	788	$1,395	$1.77	43d	1	0.90mi
1115 W Michigan St Duluth, MN	2.0	1.0	600	$1,395	$2.33	43d	3	0.93mi
2302 Hillcrest Dr Duluth, MN	3.0	1.5	1072	$3,500	$3.26	43d	1	1.11mi
521 W 2nd St Duluth, MN	2.0	1.0	592	$1,600	$2.70	13d	2	1.40mi
100 N 5th Ave W Duluth, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1209	$3,299	$2.73	21d	7	1.45mi
100 N 5th Ave W Duluth, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1207	$3,999	$3.31	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $120,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-05-20
   listed $120,000 Active
5. 2009-06-10
   soldstatus $75,000
6. 2009-06-01
   soldstatus $75,000 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   A spacious & well maintained home up on the hill w/ a bay & panoramic view from the second story deck. The kitchen has been updated- cabinets, sink, breakfast bar and a Jenn-Aire grill/rotisserie. All of the bedrooms are nice size w/ good size closets. Th

7. 2008-09-24
   listed $79,900 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   A spacious & well maintained home up on the hill w/ a bay & panoramic view from the second story deck. The kitchen has been updated- cabinets, sink, breakfast bar and a Jenn-Aire grill/rotisserie. All of the bedrooms are nice size w/ good size closets. Th

8. 2008-01-21
   listed $79,900
9. 2008-01-04
   listed $86,900
10. 2007-08-07
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,398 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,398 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,398
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $7,379
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,771
• After-tax cash flow: $7,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duluth Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,692
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3360
• State rank: #132 of 301 in MN

Livability — Duluth

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duluth, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 71,097
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 9,356
• Household income: $42,833
• Rent vs Own: 57.9% rent · 42.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 506.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Native American 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 5% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.85%
• Current HPI: 195.9805
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+33.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $120,000 LSAR
• 2009-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2009-06-01 Sold (MLS) $75,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-24 Listed $79,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-21 Listed $79,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-04 Listed $86,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-07 Listed $89,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,398 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.