323 Tay St · Rockford, IL 61102

$109,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,436 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1910 7,841 sqft lot Est $119k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of comfort and functionality in this charming two-story home featuring three spacious bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms. Thoughtfully updated, the interior boasts modern laminate flooring throughout, along with upgraded electrical and plumbing systems for added peace of mind. A recently installed roof (2022) ensures long-term durability, while a window unit AC provides seasonal comfort. The property offers ample parking and storage with a two-car detached garage. Enjoy the serene outdoor space with mature apple, peach, and pear trees—an ideal setting for relaxing or entertaining. This well-maintained home is a true gem with both character and modern conv

Key facts

• Upgraded plumbing
• Ample parking
• Upgraded electrical

Tags

• MODERN LAMINATE FLOORING
• UPGRADED ELECTRICAL
• UPGRADED PLUMBING
• RECENTLY INSTALLED ROOF
• AMPLE PARKING
• MATURE APPLE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 22.2% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ellis Elementary School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,927 of 2,056 statewide, top 100%, 401 students, 0% FRL); Kennedy Middle School (math 3% / reading 2%, grade F, #660 of 665 statewide, top 100%, 380 students, 0% FRL); Auburn High School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #210 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 1,936 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.89%
• DSCR: 3.53
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,364
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1434 Elm St	0.18mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,340 (-4%)	7mo	$164,900	$70	74
425 N Hinkley Ave	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,334 (-4%)	4mo	$100,000	$43	58
718 Locust St	0.71mi	3/1.0	2,268 (-7%)	2mo	$110,000	$49	52
453 N Avon St	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,360 (-3%)	22mo	$105,000	$44	46
1336 Elm St	0.12mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,093 (-14%)	23mo	$40,000	$19	44
407 N Avon St	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,121 (-13%)	9mo	$143,750	$68	41
303 Howard Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	2,100 (-14%)	18mo	$112,500	$54	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $75,101
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.01×
• Total profit: $185,009
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61102

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,707 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $693/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $1,459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $861

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,521	-5% $1,490	+0% $1,459	+5% $1,428	+10% $1,397
Rent	-10% $1,245	-5% $1,352	+0% $1,459	+5% $1,566	+10% $1,673
Rate	-1.0pp $1,514	-0.5pp $1,487	base $1,459	+0.5pp $1,430	+1.0pp $1,401

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2511 Ashland Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	2.0	2504	$2,900	$1.16	23d	1	1.16mi
2916 School St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.5	1578	$2,400	$1.52	45d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-06-03
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-03
   status Pending
3. 2025-06-02
   historical
4. 2025-05-29
   listed $109,900 Active
5. 2025-05-29
   listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $693 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,594 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$901/yr (+$75/mo · 130.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$693
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,599
• − Management: −$2,599
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $16,694
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,006
• After-tax cash flow: $13,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• City population: 147,297
• Population (ZIP): 16,620

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.81%
• Current HPI: 189.9634
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-03 Pending — NWIAR
• 2025-06-03 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-02 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-29 Listed $109,900 NWIAR
• 2025-05-29 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $693 · -8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.