4849 State Route 54 · Elysburg, PA 17824

$179,900

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,506 sqft · Other · 1 Days on market

Built 1900 0.72 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious two-story home on large . 72 acre lot just outside of Elysburg. Ready for its new owner with freshly painted rooms and new carpet added in the bedrooms. Near Geisinger Medical Center and Knoebels Amusement Resort, this house features an open kitchen area with island and all appliances, first floor 5th bedroom with attached bath and walk-in-closet, first floor laundry with washer and dryer included, 2nd floor master bedroom with en-suite bath plus new carpet, and hardwood floors in large living room. Exterior features a wrap-around porch, rear patio area, one car detached garage and lots of parking. (10G property incentive)

Key facts

• Highway route access
• Generous layout
• Solid lot size

Tags

• GENEROUS LAYOUT
• SOLID LOT SIZE
• HIGHWAY ROUTE ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax year 2026 (tax details available)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with two garage spaces and additional storage area
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic
• Home design: Detached structure; Ownership is fee simple; Year built is estimated
• Construction: Foundation: other
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Other above-grade structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the upper level; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane (owned) heating; Electric cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Finished above-grade living area is estimated; Basement (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($193/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#724 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Southern Columbia Area SD (rural): math 45% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #134 of 539 in PA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $134k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,712 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.38%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $98,968
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $290,571
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17824

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,590/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,457

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $67	+0% $16	+5% $-35	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-101	-5% $-42	+0% $16	+5% $74	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $62	base $16	+0.5pp $-31	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 681-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $179,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,590 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,216 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: +$626/yr (+$52/mo · 39.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,590
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,418
• − Management: −$1,418
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$698
• After-tax cash flow: $891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Columbia Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4222260
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,296
• Composite: 45.84/100
• National rank: #2554
• State rank: #134 of 539 in PA

Livability — Elysburg

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #724
• US rank: #7176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,840

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Danish 8% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.80%
• Current HPI: 328.9686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+9.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-03 Sold (MLS) $134,000 CSVBR
• 2018-03-12 Listed $134,000 CSVBR
• 2015-05-01 Listed $164,900 CSVBR

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,590 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.