71 Woodlake Unit A · Lake St. Louis, MO 63367

$179,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,216 sqft · Townhouse public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1984 566 sqft lot Est $199k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a tenant occupied 2-bedroom, 1.5 bedroom townhouse with a possible 3rd bedroom in the finished lower level. This property has full Lake St Louis lake rights. Do not disturb tenant. No showings without an accepted contract.

Key facts

• Built 1984
• Listed 35 days

Tags

• LAKE ST LOUIS LAKE RIGHTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.1% in Lake St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Duello Elem. (math 43% / reading 55%, grade D, #331 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 644 students, 3% FRL); Timberland High (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,676 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 230 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($138k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $180k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.59%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,424
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Woodlake Ct Unit D	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,240 (+2%)	8mo	$139,500	$113	89
73 Woodlake Ct Unit E	0.02mi	2/1.5	1,216 (0%)	18mo	$175,000	$144	84
65 Woodlake Ct Unit D	0.01mi	2/2.5	1,216 (0%)	22mo	$150,000	$123	77
120 Homeshire Dr #10	0.46mi	2/2.5	1,256 (+3%)	4mo	$213,000	$170	66
122 Homeshire Dr #11	0.45mi	2/2.5	1,256 (+3%)	5mo	$225,000	$179	65
118 Homeshire Dr	0.46mi	2/2.5	1,256 (+3%)	5mo	$225,000	$179	65
122 Homeshire Dr	0.45mi	2/2.5	1,256 (+3%)	11mo	$212,000	$169	60
108 Homeshire Dr	0.46mi	2/2.5	1,256 (+3%)	14mo	$209,900	$167	58
2202 Gascony Dr #2202	0.61mi	2/1.5	1,162 (-4%)	11mo	$165,000	$142	55
78 Lemans Ct #78	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-5%)	2mo	$119,900	$104	50
2206 Gascony Dr	0.59mi	2/1.5	1,396 (+15%)	5mo	$149,900	$107	44
104 Homeshire Dr	0.46mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,376 (+13%)	19mo	$225,000	$164	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-6,515
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $30,295
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63367

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,994/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,499

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17 Warsen Ave Wentzville, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,875	$2.17	14d	1	0.65mi
78 Lemans Ct #78 Lake St Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,695	$1.47	1d	1	0.69mi
1000 Centinnial Club DR O'Fallon, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1309	$2,290	$1.75	1d	32	0.98mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   status $179,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-20
   listed $179,900 Active
5. 2016-04-06
   soldstatus $77,000
6. 2006-12-26
   soldstatus $93,000
7. 2003-07-18
   soldstatus $88,000
8. 1997-09-01
   soldstatus $49,000
9. 1986-08-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,994 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,994 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,994
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$234
• After-tax cash flow: $3,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lake St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 27,893
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 29,725
• Household income: $137,648
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 184.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.38%
• Current HPI: 208.2774
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.21%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+267.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $179,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 1997-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1986-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,994 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.