8579 New Suffolk Ave · Cutchogue, NY 11935

$1,565,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,950 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 1995 3.40 ac lot Est $1463k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

All About Privacy At This Spacious Hillside Ranch Located At The End Of A Private Country Lane. Well-Maintained 2 Level Home Featuring 5 Bedrooms, 3.5 Baths, Living Rm, Formal Dr, Den, Wood Floors, CAC, Central Vac, Irrigation, Gorgeous Views From Outdoor Deck, Master Ensuite With Large Walk-In Closet & All Conveniences On Main Level. 2 Car Garage, Generator Included. Roof, CAC, Furnace, Appliances Recently Replaced., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

Key facts

• Oversized closet
• Renovated bath
• New deck

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• RENOVATED BATH
• OVERSIZED CLOSET
• FULLY FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• LARGE SECONDARY LIVING ROOM
• NEW DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Clapboard and frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Deck; Walk-out finished basement; Basement storage space

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom located on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Primary bathroom; Master bedroom on main level; Walk-in closet(s); Deck
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.56M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.46M (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.46M (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $167k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $156k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $438k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$269k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.54M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $855k; list at $1.56M implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $1,463,075 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.55%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,463,200
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1390 Country Club Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,000 (+2%)	8mo	$1,700,000	$567	53
8581 New Suffolk Ave	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,600 (-12%)	23mo	$1,290,000	$496	51
955 Deep Hole Dr	0.59mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,532 (-14%)	1mo	$675,000	$267	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $957,865
• Equity at exit: $1,409,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.25×
• Total profit: $2,736,815
• Equity at exit: $3,040,451

Cash invested: $438,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11935

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,631 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,207
• Tax from tax record: −$1,037 /mo · $12,443/yr
• Insurance: −$652
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,072
• Net cashflow: $1,662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,527

Max offer price $1,565,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $391,250
• Closing costs: $46,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19000 Main Rd Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	43d	1	0.55mi
435 Luptons Point Rd Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.5	2700	$6,000	$2.22	43d	1	0.86mi
1100 Alvahs Ln Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2400	$24,200	$10.08	43d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,565,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,565,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,565,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,565,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,565,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,565,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,565,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,565,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,565,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,565,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,565,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,565,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,565,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $1,565,000 Active
15. 2020-11-23
    soldstatus $855,000
16. 2020-10-08
    soldstatus $855,000 Closed 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    All About Privacy At This Spacious Hillside Ranch Located At The End Of A Private Country Lane. Well-Maintained 2 Level Home Featuring 5 Bedrooms, 3.5 Baths, Living Rm, Formal Dr, Den, Wood Floors, CAC, Central Vac, Irrigation, Gorgeous Views From Outdoor Deck, Master Ensuite With Large Walk-In Closet & All Conveniences On Main Level. 2 Car Garage, Generator Included. Roof, CAC, Furnace, Appliances Recently Replaced., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

17. 2020-02-24
    listed $875,000 New 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    All About Privacy At This Spacious Hillside Ranch Located At The End Of A Private Country Lane. Well-Maintained 2 Level Home Featuring 5 Bedrooms, 3.5 Baths, Living Rm, Formal Dr, Den, Wood Floors, CAC, Central Vac, Irrigation, Gorgeous Views From Outdoor Deck, Master Ensuite With Large Walk-In Closet & All Conveniences On Main Level. 2 Car Garage, Generator Included. Roof, CAC, Furnace, Appliances Recently Replaced., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

18. 1996-09-04
    soldstatus $335,000
19. 1995-10-05
    soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,443 · $1,037/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,446 · $1,620/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,003/yr (+$584/mo · 56.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $175,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$87,664
• − Property taxes: −$12,443
• − Insurance: −$7,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,046
• − Management: −$14,046
• − Depreciation: −$45,527
• Taxable loss: −$5,982
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,436
• After-tax cash flow: $21,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cutchogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #16353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cutchogue, NY
• City population: 2,946
• Population (ZIP): 2,946

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.82%
• Current HPI: 467.3019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2424.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $1,565,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $855,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-08 Sold (MLS) $855,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-24 Listed $875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $335,000 Public Records
• 1995-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,443 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.