1612 Spring Dr · Crystal Lake, FL 33801

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1965 9,004 sqft lot $33/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Beautifully Renovated 2 Bedroom / 2 Bathroom Home in Central Florida – Land Owned, 55+ Community. Located in the heart of Central Florida, this wonderfully renovated 2-bed/2-bath mobile home sits on an oversized lot and is completely move-in ready. Bright, airy, and thoughtfully updated, this home offers comfort, style, and a relaxed Florida lifestyle. The updated kitchen features ample cabinetry and storage, along with enough space for a cozy kitchenette; stove is natural gas. Both bathrooms have been tastefully redesigned with new cabinets, stone countertops, modern lighting, and more. You’ll fall in love with the stunning sun porch&mdas

Key facts

• Stunning sun porch
• Gated entrance
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• STUNNING SUN PORCH
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• LARGE EXTERIOR STORAGE ROOM
• GATED ENTRANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#620 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $99k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.90%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-927
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $12,308
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,265 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,570/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $917

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1505 Goodyear Ave Unit 17 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$950	$1.20	23d	1	0.25mi
2830 Skyview Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,175	$1.38	23d	1	0.33mi
2839 8 Iron Dr Unit 2841 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,397	$1.55	23d	1	0.34mi
1323 Tom Watson Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	23d	1	0.37mi
2929 Nine Iron Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	3d	1	0.39mi
3061 Crystal Hills Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	720	$1,400	$1.94	23d	1	0.52mi
3306 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	742	$1,195	$1.61	14d	1	0.54mi
3321 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,475	$1.54	14d	1	0.57mi
1922 Crystal Grove Dr #1922 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,547	$1.53	23d	1	0.99mi
1969 Crystal Grove Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	576	$1,415	$2.46	3d	8	1.06mi
3245 E Main St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	23d	1	1.36mi
3245 E Main St Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	14d	1	1.36mi
3330 Jean Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	616	$1,300	$2.11	23d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-21
   listed $99,000 Active
3. 2023-05-02
   soldstatus $65,126
4. 1993-04-20
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,570 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,570 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,570
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$447
• After-tax cash flow: $2,852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #620
• US rank: #12023

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,460
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+395.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Listed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $65,126 Public Records
• 1993-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,570 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.