9306 Maryland St · Au Sable, MI 48750

$99,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,274 sqft · SingleFamily · 149 Days on market

Built 1960 Good condition 5,663 sqft lot $78/sqft · 26% below area Est $135k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New offering in the Villages of Oscoda that is Priced to Sell! This 3 bed 1.5 bath with a full unfinished basement has just been freshened up for the new owner. Pecan hardwood floors have been refinished. Fresh coat of paint through the entire house and new tile flooring in the first floor bath. Central AC, city water and sewer. These units provide great value and make outstanding rental properties. Monthly HOA dues are $77 and cover trash removal and lawn care.

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 149 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.1% in Au Sable — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#449 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oscoda Area Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #313 of 540 in MI (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Iosco County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Iosco County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.08%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,672
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -25.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9306 Maryland St	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,274 (0%)	1mo	$102,000	$80	100
9306 Maryland St Unit A	0.01mi	3/1.5	1,274 (0%)	1mo	$102,000	$80	99
9502 B Montana St Lot : 542	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,262 (-1%)	0mo	$125,000	$99	93
9502 B Montana St	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,262 (-1%)	0mo	$125,000	$99	93
8005B N Alaska St	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,328 (+4%)	2mo	$105,000	$79	68
8005B N Alaska St #15	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,328 (+4%)	2mo	$105,000	$79	68
10001 8th St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,170 (-8%)	3mo	$141,500	$121	63
8013 S Alaska St	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,255 (-2%)	20mo	$96,000	$76	58
8013 S Alaska St Unit A	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,255 (-2%)	20mo	$96,000	$76	58
10409 South Carolina St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,170 (-8%)	21mo	$130,000	$111	54
10038 8th St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,170 (-8%)	16mo	$139,900	$120	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $1,764
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $24,703
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48750

• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   New offering in the Villages of Oscoda that is Priced to Sell! This 3 bed 1.5 bath with a full unfinished basement has just been freshened up for the new owner. Pecan hardwood floors have been refinished. Fresh coat of paint through the entire house and new tile flooring in the first floor bath. Central AC, city water and sewer. These units provide great value and make outstanding rental properties. Monthly HOA dues are $77 and cover trash removal and lawn care.

2. 2026-05-03
   historical Active Under Contract 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   New offering in the Villages of Oscoda that is Priced to Sell! This 3 bed 1.5 bath with a full unfinished basement has just been freshened up for the new owner. Pecan hardwood floors have been refinished. Fresh coat of paint through the entire house and new tile flooring in the first floor bath. Central AC, city water and sewer. These units provide great value and make outstanding rental properties. Monthly HOA dues are $77 and cover trash removal and lawn care.

3. 2026-04-27
   price $99,900 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   New offering in the Villages of Oscoda that is Priced to Sell! This 3 bed 1.5 bath with a full unfinished basement has just been freshened up for the new owner. Pecan hardwood floors have been refinished. Fresh coat of paint through the entire house and new tile flooring in the first floor bath. Central AC, city water and sewer. These units provide great value and make outstanding rental properties. Monthly HOA dues are $77 and cover trash removal and lawn care.

4. 2026-03-17
   price $107,000 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   New offering in the Villages of Oscoda that is Priced to Sell! This 3 bed 1.5 bath with a full unfinished basement has just been freshened up for the new owner. Pecan hardwood floors have been refinished. Fresh coat of paint through the entire house and new tile flooring in the first floor bath. Central AC, city water and sewer. These units provide great value and make outstanding rental properties. Monthly HOA dues are $77 and cover trash removal and lawn care.

5. 2025-12-18
   listed $97,900 Active 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   New offering in the Villages of Oscoda that is Priced to Sell! This 3 bed 1.5 bath with a full unfinished basement has just been freshened up for the new owner. Pecan hardwood floors have been refinished. Fresh coat of paint through the entire house and new tile flooring in the first floor bath. Central AC, city water and sewer. These units provide great value and make outstanding rental properties. Monthly HOA dues are $77 and cover trash removal and lawn care.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,901
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$456
• After-tax cash flow: $2,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with recent updates, including refinished hardwood floors and new tile in the first floor bath. It is priced to sell and would benefit from some landscaping and exterior painting to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers/renters
• Both Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers/renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers/renters ↑
• Both Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oscoda Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2626970
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,275
• Composite: 28.6/100
• National rank: #6714
• State rank: #313 of 540 in MI

Livability — Au Sable

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #449
• US rank: #12590

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,281

Population outlook (Iosco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,366 people
• By 2030: 23,622 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 22,021 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 20,877 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 18,792 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 15,465 · -36.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Iosco

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.6) · D 34.0% · R 64.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -30.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.6 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+30.0 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.75%
• Current HPI: 157.6759
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-03 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $107,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-18 Listed $97,900 REALCOMP