54 Little Fresh Pond Rd · North Sea, NY 11968

$1,595,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,101 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1986 0.26 ac lot Est $1511k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the rare charm of a contemporary waterfront retreat in the heart of Southampton, perfectly positioned along the serene shore of Little Fresh Pond. This exceptional 3 bedroom (septic for 4), 4 bath residence offers an effortless blend of modern comfort and natural beauty, with serene water views that feel endless in every season. Thoughtfully designed to highlight its stunning setting, the home features multiple decks overlooking the water, including expansive outdoor space on the main level and a private terrace off the primary suite-perfect for morning coffee or evenings spent taking in the ever-changing reflections on the water. Above it all, a rooftop deck elevates the lifesty

Key facts

• Multiple decks
• Rooftop deck
• Water views

Tags

• WATERFRONT RETREAT
• WATER VIEWS
• MULTIPLE DECKS
• PRIVATE TERRACE
• ROOFTOP DECK
• HOT TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.59M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($91k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $1.59M).
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 6.5% in North Sea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,063 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $21,465/mo this rent would consume 165% of the median local household income ($156k/yr) (locally 274% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $447k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $1.59M implies a 502% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,595,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.45%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,510,619
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44 Little Fresh Pond Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,060 (-2%)	24mo	$1,101,300	$535	71
32 Andrew	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,974 (-6%)	4mo	$1,420,000	$719	57
620 Majors Path	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-5%)	6mo	$1,695,000	$848	54
195 Little Fresh Pond Rd	0.24mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,800 (-14%)	1mo	$1,680,000	$933	53
970 N Sea Rd	0.65mi	4/3.0	1,913 (-9%)	23mo	$999,990	$523	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $338,993
• Equity at exit: $237,820

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $1,432,783
• Equity at exit: $137,906

Cash invested: $446,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11968

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 14.6%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,465 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,364
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,818/yr
• Insurance: −$665
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,508
• Net cashflow: $7,611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,832

Max offer price $1,595,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $398,750
• Closing costs: $47,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Lake View Ct Southampton, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$15,000	$8.33	43d	1	0.17mi
29 Missapoque Ave Southampton, NY	4.0	2.0	1934	$8,000	$4.14	43d	1	0.17mi
14 Millstone Dr Unit 1520127P Southampton, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$18,488	$10.74	21d	1	0.54mi
278 Big Fresh Pond Rd Southampton, NY	3.0	1.5	1400	$35,000	$25.00	24d	1	0.82mi
30 Old Fish Cove Rd Unit 1512341P Southampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2497	$25,322	$10.14	21d	1	0.87mi
40 Roman Rd Southampton, NY	3.0	3.0	1912	$6,500	$3.40	43d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $1,595,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,818 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,387 · $1,282/mo
• Expected delta: +$11,569/yr (+$964/mo · 303.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $257,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,345
• − Property taxes: −$3,818
• − Insurance: −$7,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,607
• − Management: −$20,607
• − Depreciation: −$46,400
• Taxable income: $68,833
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,520
• After-tax cash flow: $74,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Sea

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1063
• US rank: #21178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Sea, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,312
• Household income: $156,219
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 274.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -184.86%
• Current HPI: 461.1144
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.62%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+501.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $1,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $1,950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-13 Listed $2,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,818 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.