12962 State Route 28 · White Lake, NY 13338

$220,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1923 1.39 ac lot $159/sqft · 59% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your peaceful retreat at the gateway to the Adirondacks. Perfectly situated at the entrance of Adirondack State Park and just 20 minutes from Old Forge, this inviting home offers the ideal balance of nature, comfort, and convenience. Nestled adjacent to White Lake, you’ll enjoy a tranquil setting that’s perfect for relaxing, unwinding, and reconnecting with the outdoors. Inside, the home features three spacious bedrooms, providing plenty of room for family and guests. The primary suite offers a special touch of serenity, with a screened-in porch just off the bedroom—an ideal spot to enjoy your morning coffee, take in the surrounding views, or listen to the peace

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Versatile room
• Large living room

Tags

• PEACEFUL RETREAT
• GATEWAY TO ADIRONDACKS
• ADJACENT TO WHITE LAKE
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• VERSATILE ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Wood siding; Architectural/membrane/rubber/shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Porch (open and screened); Dirt driveway; Gravel driveway; Leased propane tank; Rectangular lot; Main thoroughfare frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 150 x 404 (about 1.39 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Propane water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Home office; Country kitchen; Workshop; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement with dirt floor; Generator
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.7% in White Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Town Of Webb Union Free School District (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #404 of 755 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $131k; list at $220k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $193,675 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.97%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $539,813
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -59.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
159 Newell Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-6%)	24mo	$764,400	$588	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $98,473
• Equity at exit: $165,221

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $278,321
• Equity at exit: $326,148

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13338

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,937 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,587/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,744

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $220,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $235,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $245,000 Active 1482-char remark
16. 2025-11-19
    historical
17. 2025-11-05
    status Active
18. 2025-10-02
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2025-09-27
    price $250,000
20. 2025-09-27
    status Active
21. 2025-09-12
    status Pending
22. 2025-07-27
    price $265,000
23. 2025-07-07
    status Active
24. 2025-06-20
    historical Active Under Contract
25. 2025-05-19
    listed $275,000 Active
26. 2006-01-13
    soldstatus $131,300
27. 1997-05-30
    soldstatus $46,000
28. 1993-09-30
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,587 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,652 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,066/yr (+$89/mo · 67.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,587
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,888
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$453
• After-tax cash flow: $2,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Town Of Webb Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3628800
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $52,522
• Composite: 47.01/100
• National rank: #5138
• State rank: #404 of 755 in NY

Livability — White Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: White Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,293

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 6% Subsaharan African 5%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.87%
• Current HPI: 470.5822
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+450.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $220,000 CNYIS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $235,000 CNYIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $245,000 CNYIS
• 2025-11-19 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-11-05 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-10-02 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $250,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-27 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-09-12 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-07-27 Price Changed $265,000 CNYIS
• 2025-07-07 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-06-20 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $275,000 CNYIS
• 2006-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $131,300 Public Records
• 1997-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 1993-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,587 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.