Peak (Oakview) Plan · Carrollton, KY 41008

$59,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 323 Days on market

$385/mo HOA · 46% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located off I-71, Oakview Pointe is a quiet suburban community close to shopping and employment, with a recreation area, playground, and just a short drive to General Butler State Park. Community Amenities Ball field, Basketball Court, Picnic Area, Playground, and Walking/Nature Trails Schools Carroll County School District: Richard B. Cartmell Elementary School, Carroll County Middle School, and Carroll County High School For current prices of homes in Oakview Pointe call our sales office today!

Key facts

• Recreation area
• Playground
• Listed 322 days

Tags

• QUIET SUBURBAN COMMUNITY
• RECREATION AREA
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Peak (Oakview) Plan, Carrollton, KY 41008
• Financial info: List price $59,995
• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $385

Exterior

• Home design: New construction (Plan)
• Construction: Built as Peak (Oakview) plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 800

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home — Peak (Oakview)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $40k (33.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($835 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#129 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Carroll County (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #163 of 165 in KY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,786 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.98%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $24,029
• Equity at exit: $54,048

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $78,252
• Equity at exit: $116,557

Cash invested: $16,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41008

• Home prices YoY: 16.4%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$385
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,012

Max offer price $39,786

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,999
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $385 · $4,620/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,995 Active 323 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,995 Active 322 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,995 Active 321 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,995 Active 320 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,995 Active 318 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,995 Active 317 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,995 Active 314 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,995 Active 313 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,995 Active 312 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,995 Active 311 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,995 Active 308 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,995 Active 307 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,995 Active 306 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,995 Active 305 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,995 Active 304 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$802
• − Management: −$802
• − HOA: −$4,620
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable loss: −$2,505
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$601
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County
• NCES district ID: 2100990
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $41,646
• Composite: 15.0/100
• National rank: #9361
• State rank: #163 of 165 in KY

Livability — Carrollton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #6156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,754

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,359 people
• By 2030: 10,058 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 9,465 · -8.6%
• By 2050: 8,788 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 7,079 · -31.7%
• By 2100: 5,066 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.9% · R 74.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+10.1 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 37.93%
• Current HPI: 269.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B