1135 Concord Pl · Missouri City, TX 77459

$299,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,430 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 2004 5,431 sqft lot $87/sqft · 6% below area Est $319k · 6% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4BD/2.5BA home offered as-is, featuring a flexible floor plan with 2–3 living areas, including an upstairs game room, and two dining spaces—ideal for entertaining, working from home, or everyday living. The oversized primary suite is a standout with ample room for a sitting area and a private en-suite bath. Secondary bedrooms are well sized, offering plenty of space for family or guests. With generous square footage and a versatile layout, this home presents a great opportunity for a family ready to add a little TLC and make it their own in an established neighborhood.

Key facts

• 5,431 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dr Lynn Armstrong El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 438 students, 95% FRL); Missouri City Middle (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 963 students, 88% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,471 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.51%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,081
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -6.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4114 Custer Creek Dr	0.36mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,424 (-0%)	2mo	$399,000	$117	74
1231 Kings Creek Trl	0.46mi	4/2.5	3,377 (-2%)	12mo	$368,000	$109	64
1302 Forest Hollow Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5	3,263 (-5%)	18mo	$379,900	$116	54
1411 Forest Hollow Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	3,160 (-8%)	10mo	$308,000	$97	54
4115 Midstream Dr	0.61mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,511 (+2%)	8mo	$455,000	$130	52
1842 Lake Winds Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	3,123 (-9%)	4mo	$450,000	$144	50
4311 Lakeside Meadow Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5	3,148 (-8%)	8mo	$495,000	$157	49
1322 Village Garden Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,982 (-13%)	9mo	$359,900	$121	48
4130 Starboard Shores Dr	0.68mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,550 (+4%)	9mo	$510,000	$144	47
1703 Lakewinds Dr	0.56mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,779 (+10%)	10mo	$520,000	$138	42
651 S Marathon Way	0.67mi	4/3.5	3,021 (-12%)	8mo	$365,000	$121	41
4102 Jetty Terrace Cir	0.69mi	4/2.5	3,012 (-12%)	8mo	$520,000	$173	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-54,913
• Equity at exit: $62,898

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-82,372
• Equity at exit: $58,258

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,727 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$677 /mo · $8,130/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,038

Max offer price $256,471

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-76	-5% $-161	+0% $-246	+5% $-331	+10% $-416
Rent	-10% $-461	-5% $-354	+0% $-246	+5% $-138	+10% $-30
Rate	-1.0pp $-95	-0.5pp $-170	base $-246	+0.5pp $-324	+1.0pp $-403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1250 Kings Creek Trl Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2360	$2,295	$0.97	22d	1	0.53mi
4223 Shady Village Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2650	$2,440	$0.92	45d	1	0.59mi
4309 Lakeside Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	4.0	3214	$2,850	$0.89	19d	1	0.64mi
1504 Sheffield Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2557	$2,650	$1.04	45d	1	1.11mi
4803 Rebel Ridge Dr Sugar Land, TX	4.0	2.5	2812	$2,600	$0.92	45d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,900 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,900 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 165 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 163 DOM
13. 2025-12-19
    listed $299,900 Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Spacious 4BD/2.5BA home offered as-is, featuring a flexible floor plan with 2–3 living areas, including an upstairs game room, and two dining spaces—ideal for entertaining, working from home, or everyday living. The oversized primary suite is a standout with ample room for a sitting area and a private en-suite bath. Secondary bedrooms are well sized, offering plenty of space for family or guests. With generous square footage and a versatile layout, this home presents a great opportunity for a family ready to add a little TLC and make it their own in an established neighborhood.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,130 · $677/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,130 · $677/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$8,130
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,618
• − Management: −$2,618
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,965
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,912
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Listed $299,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,130 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.